GBPUSD, Bitcoin Analysis: Pound Holds Resistance, Bitcoin Slips

Key Events

• GBPUSD remains in consolidation, struggling to hold above 1.27 as the DXY maintains its bullish stance above the 106-mark
• BTCUSD has broken out of a three-month expanding range, reaching a low of 82,000. Should traders buy the dip or prepare for further sell-off risks?
• Trade war and tariff risks keep markets on edge against the US Dollar. Upcoming US Prelim GDP today and US Core PCE on Friday could introduce further DXY volatility

GBPUSD Analysis: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

The GBPUSD pair has been testing a key resistance level for a week, mirroring the EURUSD hold at 1.0530 and the DXY's strength above 106. The longer a market consolidates, the sharper the potential breakout.

Upside Scenario: If the pair manages to close above 1.27, a rally could extend toward 1.2780–1.28, aligning with the trendline connecting the consecutive lower highs between 2014 to 2021, marking a significant resistance or breakout barrier.

Downside Scenario: A dip below 1.2550 may support declines key support zones at 1.2360, 1.2220, and 1.21. Further declines could lead to a new yearly low, targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the corrective pattern between:

  o July 2023 high at 1.3140

o October 2023 low at 1.2030

o September 2024 high at 1.3434, aligning with the 1.18 price level

BTCUSD Analysis: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

Following Bitcoin’s extended expanding consolidation from December 2024 to January 2025, bearish sentiment increased upon a downside breakout, raising the likelihood of a double-top formation at the record highs between 108,360 and 109,350. This has sparked concerns of a potential drop towards the previous major resistance zone between 72,000 and 74,000.

• Momentum Perspective: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached oversold levels last seen in August 2024, when BTCUSD marked its final low before surging past 100,000.
• Upside Scenario: If BTCUSD maintains its rebound above 82,000, it could climb towards 86,500, 93,000 and potentially retest the record 109,000 level.
• Downside Scenario: If BTCUSD closes below 82,000, further declines could extend towards 79,500 and 72,000, aligning with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of the uptrend between the August 2024 lows and the January 2025 highs.