All trading involves risk. Ensure you understand those risks before trading.
Open account
☰
All trading involves risk. Ensure you understand those risks before trading.
Open account
✖

European Open Volatility Hints at an Upside Break for the SP 500

Article By: ,  Market Analyst
September 16, 2021 10:56 AM

Asian Indices:

  • Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 44.6 points (0.6%) and currently trades at 7,461.60
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 index has fallen by -253.91 points (-0.83%) and currently trades at 30,259.09
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has fallen by -494.39 points (-1.97%) and currently trades at 24,538.82

UK and Europe:

  • UK's FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.5 points (0.01%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,016.99
  • Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently up 4.5 points (0.11%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 4,150.44
  • Germany's DAX futures are currently up 8 points (0.05%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 15,624.00

US Futures:

  • DJI futures are currently up 236.82 points (0.68%)
  • S&P 500 futures are currently down -9 points (-0.06%)
  • Nasdaq 100 futures are currently down -3.5 points (-0.08%)

 

Asian indices lower, futures mixed

Japan’s equity markets failed to hold onto earlier gains as investors likely booked profits after an explosive bullish run. A large bearish engulfing candle formed on the Nikkei 225 after printing two Doji’s just off its February high, and failing to close to a 30-year high. Given the size of today’s candle we suspect an (arguably overdue) correction is now underway.

The Hang Seng was the weakest performer, shedding -2% and falling to its lowest level this year. Casino stocks weighed on the broader market as gaming consultations were underway ahead of casino rebidding.

 

The S&P 500 E-mini futures contract saw a false break below trend support this week. Price action continues to hold above the 50-day eMA and the fact the false break did not even test it show that bullish momentum is building. Also note that yesterday’s elongated bullish candle on the dour-hour chart was the most volatile candle since the one seen on the 20th August, which was just off structural lows ahead of its next rally. We are therefore bullish above the 4425 low and now seeking a break above 4483.50 to assume bullish continuation.

 

FTSE 350: Market Internals


FTSE 350: 4053.58 (-0.25%) 15 September 2021

  • 70 (20.00%) stocks advanced and 268 (76.57%) declined
  • 5 stocks rose to a new 52-week high, 14 fell to new lows
  • 66% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
  • 50.86% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
  • 15.43% of stocks closed above their 20-day average

Outperformers:

  • + 5.4%   -  Tullow Oil PLC  (TLW.L) 
  • + 3.6%   -  EVRAZ plc  (EVRE.L) 
  • + 3.5%   -  Civitas Social Housing PLC  (CSH.L) 

Underperformers:

  • -10.5%   -  Restaurant Group PLC  (RTN.L) 
  • -6.61%   -  Trustpilot Group PLC  (TRST.L) 
  • -5.75%   -  Beazley PLC  (BEZG.L) 

 

Forex: Stella growth report for New Zealand

New Zealand’s GDP expanded by 17.4% in Q2, above the 16.4% expected to hit a record high. On the quarter GDP also posted a healthy 2.8% expansion which prompted some to speculate that RBNZ will now be on track to hike at their next meeting. However, as GDP is backwards looking and this data set does not include the negative impact of recent lockdowns, it remains uncertain as to whether RBNZ will actually hike. We think it would be shrewd to wait for any such confirmation from RBNZ during public addresses over the coming week/s to see if a hike garners any merit.

A host of US data released at 13:30 BST includes employment data, business sentiment and retail sales. With employment claims sitting at post-pandemic lows following softer-than-expected-inflation, a surprise uptick of claims could spook dollar bulls further. Couple that with dire retail sales and we could have a bearish session for US on our hands (in which case gold, silver and copper might gain some bullish attention). Essentially any data between now and up to next week’s FOMC meeting could leave the US dollar vulnerable to pockets of volatility.

 

Learn how to trade forex

 

Commodities break broadly higher

The CRB commodity index broke to a 6-year high yesterday, after breaking out of the flag pattern the daily chart mentioned in yesterday’s video. Our bias remains bullish above 216.85 and its next target is the 227.47 high.

WTI also broke higher and trades around 72.80. Should oil prices continue higher it could provide further support for Wall Street (as it did yesterday) and help the S&P E-minis contract break above resistance.

 

Up Next (Times in BST)

You can view all the scheduled events for today using our economic calendar, and keep up to date with the latest market news and analysis here.

 

How to trade with City Index

Follow these easy steps to start trading with City Index today:

  1. Open a City Index account, or log-in if you’re already a customer.
  2. Search for the market you want to trade in our award-winning platform.
  3. Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels.
  4. Place the trade.


From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 28.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.

© City Index 2024