European Open: Trump announces presidential rerun, NATO in focus

Asian Indices:

Australia's ASX 200 index fell by -19.4 points (-0.27%) and currently trades at 7,122.20
Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 11.44 points (0.04%) and currently trades at 28,001.43
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has fallen by -256.41 points (-1.4%) and currently trades at 18,086.71
China's A50 Index has fallen by -47.27 points (-0.38%) and currently trades at 12,443.34

UK and Europe:

UK's FTSE 100 futures are currently down -33 points (-0.45%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,336.44
Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently down -38 points (-0.97%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 3,877.09
Germany's DAX futures are currently down -155 points (-1.08%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 14,223.51

US Futures:

DJI futures are currently down -20 points (-0.06%)
S&P 500 futures are currently down -22 points (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 100 futures are currently down -4.5 points (-0.11%)

Trump to run (again) in 2024 election

In true Trump style, his announcement was delivered in full ‘campaign mode’ to the roar of his supporters at his Mar-a-Lago resort. Citing high levels of inflation, his record for a US president not having a war and the amazing job he did of saving lives around the pandemic, he’s likely just warming up for what could be another turbulent 2-years (at least) for US politics.

At this stage the bigger question is whether he will split the Republican party and inadvertently hand the Democrats an easy win. Of course, a lot can happen between now and then – but if inflation is not under control, it will put the Dems in a very weak position by the elections.

However, it’s a long arduous road to the Whitehouse and as of yet Trump wields no presidential powers, so it could take some time for markets to take notice – which is likely why they showed no meaningful reaction today, from an announcement we all fully expected.

NATO to meet today regarding alleged Russian missile in Poland

Reports flew in of a Russian missile hitting Polish soil, killing two people. Given Poland is NATO member, and ‘and attack on one is an attack on all’, fears that the war in Ukraine will escalate beyond its borders and bring in NATO members quickly escalated. However, the US and Western allies are not yet able to confirm the report and are still investigating – and there has been some speculation that the rocket may be shrapnel from a rocket, and not a planned attack.

In the grand scheme of things, volatility could have been greater given the potential fallout from the alleged Russian missile. So, from that alone it appears markets have taken it within their stride and are assuming that a resolution can be found without an escalation of war.

FTSE 100 daily chart:

The FTSE 100 has found resistance at the monthly R2 pivot point, with the past 4 daily candles test (yet failing to close above) it. A bearish divergence has formed on the 1-hour RSI to show loss of momentum, and both prices and the RSI broke their respective support lines ahead of yesterday’s close. Given futures markets are pointing lower, I suspect the market has seen its interim high and we could be headed for a move back to the 7088 – 7133 support zone.

FTSE 350 – Market Internals:

FTSE 350: 4094.09 (0.66%) 15 November 2022

229 (65.43%) stocks advanced and 112 (32.00%) declined
0 stocks rose to a new 52-week high, 5 fell to new lows
12.57% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
50.57% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
5.43% of stocks closed above their 20-day average

Outperformers:

+ 4.25% - Carnival PLC (CCL.L)
+ 3.77% - Fidelity China Special Situations PLC (FCSS.L)
+ 3.38% - Centrica PLC (CNA.L)

Underperformers:

-16.79% - Ocado Group PLC (OCDO.L)
-7.94% - Vodafone Group PLC (VOD.L)
-7.17% - Synthomer PLC (SYNTS.L)

Economic events up next (Times in GMT)

How to trade with City Index

You can easily trade with City Index by using these four easy steps:

Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer

• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
Search for the company you want to trade in our award-winning platform
Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
Place the trade

From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.

As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.

The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.

While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.

StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.

It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 28.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.