Cable reigns supreme
On Monday, no major economic data is expected to be released.
The Euro was bearish against most of its major pairs with the exception of the AUD. In Europe, September Consumer Price Index was released at +0.1%, as expected, vs -0.4% in August. The last phase of Brexit talks should end today. Boris Johnson and EU Commission President Von Der Leyen will hold talk on next steps tomorrow.
The Australian dollar was bearish against all of its major pairs.
Here is a review of key economic data over the past week:
On the jobs front, Change in Nonfarm Payrolls dropped to 661K on month in September (859K expected), from a revised 1,489K in August. The Unemployment Rate declined to 7.9% on month in September (8.2% expected), from 8.4% in August. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 837K for the week ending September 26th (850K expected), from a revised 873K in the week before. Continuing Claims dropped to 11,767K for the week ending September 19th (12,200K expected), from a revised 12,747K in the prior week. Finally, Automatic Data Processing's Employment Change rose to 749K on month in September (649K expected), from a revised 481K in August.
Regarding sentiment, The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 80.4 on month in the September final reading (79.0 expected), from 78.9 in the September preliminary reading. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index spiked to 101.8 on month in September (90.0 expected), from a revised 86.3 in August.
Looking at consumers, Personal Income slipped 2.7% on month in August (-2.5% expected), compared to a revised +0.5% in July. Personal Spending rose 1.0% on month in August (+0.8% expected), compared to a revised +1.5% in July.
On the housing data front, The Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Applications dropped 4.8% for the week ending September 25th, compared to +6.8% in the week before. Pending Home Sales surged 8.8% on month in August (+3.1% expected), compared to +5.9% in July.
Factory Orders rose 0.7% on month in August (+0.9% expected), compared to a revised +6.5% in July. Durable Goods Orders increased 0.5% on month in the August final reading (+0.4% expected), compared to +0.4% in the August preliminary reading. Markit's US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index unexpectedly declined to 53.2 on month in the September final reading (53.5 expected), from 53.5 in the September preliminary reading. Construction Spending increased 1.4% on month in August (+0.7% expected), compared to a revised +0.7% in July. Wholesale Inventories unexpectedly rose 0.5% on month in the August preliminary reading (-0.1% expected), compared to a revised -0.1% in the July final reading.
U.S. GDP rose to -31.4% on quarter in the second quarter third reading (-31.7% expected), from -31.7% in the second quarter second reading.
The GBP/USD posted the largest weekly gain of 197 pips. Key resistance remains in play at the 1.2985 level. The bias remains bearish on a daily chart until 1.2985 is broken to the downside.
Source: GAIN Capital, TradingView
The worst performing pair of the week was the USD/CHF declining 82 pips WoW. The pair is struggling to maintain support at the 0.9185 breakout level. A break above 0.93 resistance would set a path towards a target of 0.9375 on the rebound.
Source: GAIN Capital, TradingView
Have a great weekend.
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.
The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.
While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.
StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.
It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 28.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.
© City Index 2024