Bitcoin Forecast: Is the Rally Losing its Steam?

Key Events:

• The Trump market momentum is on a possible recharge mode
• DXY pulled back from the 107-mark, Bitcoin pulled back from the 93,000 high

This year, analysts and investors have widely set Bitcoin’s target at 100k, a level that has remained in sight since the January 2024 bull run took prices to a record 73,800. Bitcoin’s current trajectory has continued to surpass expectations, especially after the US elections in November. However, caution arises around possible reversal volatility near 100k.

Current market trends are closely tied to expectations for Trump’s policy agenda, with momentum likely to recharge through the Christmas holidays and into early 2025. Notably, Trump’s policies could undergo adjustments if they conflict with legal requirements or economic sustainability.

Market focus has now shifted toward Trump’s agenda rather than Fed rate or inflation expectations, with inflation risks persisting into 2025 as potential tariff and tax policies under Trump could impact Fed rate control and overall inflation.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

BTCUSD: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Following Bitcoin’s trend from a weekly time frame and Elliott Wave perspective, the fifth wave is currently in play, with the trendline connecting the 2021 peaks acting as a potential target and resistance level. The RSI has also returned to overbought territory.

The boundaries of the parallel channels formed since 2021 serve as potential support zones for pullbacks, starting with the mid-channel between the 73,000 and 69,000 range. A decisive close below 66,000 could pull the trend further toward the lower boundary of the upper channel near the 50,000-mark.

Source: Tradingview

From the upside, using the Fibonacci retracement tool from the November 2021 high of 69,000 to the November 2022 low of 15,480, the uptrend since 2022 respects retracement ratios at 0.272 (31,000), the golden 0.618 (73,790), and 1 (69,000), with the 1.618 target slightly above 100k near 102,000.

Significant volatility may occur around the 100k mark, given its psychological impact and potential for profit-taking.

If sustainable deregulation is achieved during Trump’s term, cryptocurrencies could see an increased share in investor portfolios by 2025

--- Written by Razan Hilal – on X: @ Rh_waves