Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Bulls Eye Major Resistance

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

AUD/USD rebound off downtrend support now testing initial resistance hurdle
Aussie outlook constructive while above – AU employment, U.S. Q4 GDP, Core PCE on tap
Resistance 6335/62, 6414, 6511/40 (key)- Support 6272, 6146/70 (key), 6007/45

The Australian Dollar is poised to snap a two-week winning streak that has covered the entire year-to-date range. The rally is testing pivotal resistance this week and the focus is on possible inflection off this zone in the days ahead. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart into the close of the month.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Australian Dollar Technical Forecast we noted that, “A rebound off confluent downtrend support faltered into initial downtrend resistance and keeps the focus on a breakout of the 6146-6362 range for medium-term guidance.” AUD/USD briefly registered an intraweek low at 6087 the following week before reversing sharply higher. The subsequent rally broke through the January & February opening-ranges with the bulls now testing pivotal resistance at the 2023 low-week close (LWC) / April low at 6335/62- looking for a reaction here with the bulls vulnerable while below.

Initial weekly support rests with the 2025 LWC at 6272 with critical support steady at the yearly low-close / 2022 low at 6146/70- a break / weekly close below this threshold would be needed to mark downtrend resumption with subsequent support seen at the 2008 low / 78.6% retracement of the 2020 advance at 6007/45.

A topside breach / weekly close above this key pivot zone exposes the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 decline at 6414 with a breach / close above the medina-line needed to suggest a more significant low was registered this month / a larger reversal is underway. The next major technical consideration is eyed at 6511/44- a region defined by the July close low, the 23.6% retracement of the 2021 decline and the 52-week moving average. Look or a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: The Aussie rally has stalled at a major pivot zone and while the potential for a larger recovery remains, the immediate advance may be vulnerable near-term. Form a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 6272 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 6362 needed o fuel the next leg of the advance. Look for a larger reaction into the median-line IF reached.

Keep in mind we get the release of Australian employment data tonight with U.S. Q4 GDP and key inflation data (core PCE) on tap next week. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

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