AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Struggle to Push Above Weekly High
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD
AUD/USD no longer carves a series of higher highs and lows as it struggles to push above the weekly high (0.6247), and the exchange rate may give back the rebound from the monthly low (0.6131) should it continue to track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6394).
AUD/USD Vulnerable amid Struggle to Push Above Weekly High
AUD/USD halts a three-day rally despite the larger-than-expected rise in Australia Employment, and the Australian Dollar may continue underperform against its US counterpart amid the uncertainties surrounding the Asia/Pacific region.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
Nevertheless, the ongoing expansion in employment may keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the sidelines as the economy adds 56.3K jobs in December versus forecasts for a 15.0K print, and it remains to be seen if the central bank will keep the cash rate on hold in 2025 as authorities in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, pledge to further support the economy this year.
China Economic Calendar
In turn, developments coming out of China may sway AUD/USD as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is anticipated to show a 5.0% expansion for the fourth quarter of 2024, and a positive development may prop up the Australian Dollar as it instills an improved outlook for the Asia/Pacific region.
With that said, AUD/USD may attempt to further retrace the decline from the monthly high (0.6302) as it holds above the weekly low (0.6131), but the exchange rate may continue to track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.6394) as it still holds below the moving average.
AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView
- The rebound in AUD/USD appears to be stalling as it struggles to push above the weekly high (0.6247), and the exchange rate may give back the advance from the start of the week as it no longer carves a series of higher highs and lows.
- Lack of momentum to trade back above the 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6270 (2023 low) may push AUD/USD towards the monthly low (0.6131), with a break/close below the 0.6130 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6170 (2022 low) region opening up the April 2020 low (0.5980).
- At the same time, a break/close above the 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6270 (2023 low) region may push AUD/USD towards the monthly high (0.6302), with a breach above the November 2023 low (0.6318) bringing the 0.6380 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension) zone on the radar.
Additional Market Outlooks
USD/CHF Snaps Bearish Price Series to Hold Above Weekly Low
US Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Susceptible to Test of Monthly Low
Gold Price Recovery Stalls Ahead of December High
EUR/USD Vulnerable Amid Push Below January Opening Range
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pty Ltd.
The material provided herein is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs.
While every care has been taken in preparing this material, we do not provide any representation or warranty (express or implied) with respect to its completeness or accuracy. This is not an invitation or an offer to invest nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell investments.
StoneX recommends you to seek independent financial and legal advice before making any financial investment decision. Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a higher level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could lose more than your initial investment further CFD investors do not own or have any rights to the underlying assets.
It is important you consider our Financial Services Guide and Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/, before deciding to acquire or hold our products. As a part of our market risk management, we may take the opposite side of your trade. Our Target Market Determination (TMD) is also available at www.cityindex.com/en-au/terms-and-policies/.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd, Suite 28.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 (ACN 141 774 727, AFSL 345646) is the CFD issuer and our products are traded off exchange.
© City Index 2025