A review of the week past and the week ahead 25th of January

What mattered last week:

The S&P500 rose 1.90% last week, supported by President Bidens stimulus plans and good earnings news.
Despite continued near term uncertainties around the virus and its mutations and tardy vaccine rollouts.
As well as concerns over the long-term sustainability of ballooning government deficits.
Volatility, as measured by the VIX index fell 2.4 points to close at 21.9.
U.S. 10-year yields edged higher to 1.10%.
Gold recovered from an early fall to finish 1.50% higher near $1855.00
Crude oil closed flattish near $52.27/bbl.
The ASX200 rallied 1.27% to close at 6800.4.
The AUDUSD rose modestly to close near .7715 in a quiet week of trading.

For the week ahead, the key events are:

Australia: NAB business confidence and Q4 CPI (Wednesday).

Q4 CPI (Wednesday): After extraordinary volatility in the prior two quarters coming from the temporary effect of child care subsidies and large swings in fuel prices, a more subdued inflation print is likely this week. Headline inflation is expected to rise by 0.7% q/q, while underlying inflation is expected to remain low at 0.4% q/q.

New Zealand: Balance of trade (Thursday), ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer confidence (Friday).

China: NBS manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI (Saturday).

Japan: BoJ meeting minutes (Tuesday), retail sales (Thursday), employment, industrial production, and consumer confidence (Friday).

Employment: Jobs data for December is expected to soften and push the unemployment rate higher, from 2.9% to 3.1%.

Singapore: CPI (Monday), industrial production (Tuesday), employment (Thursday).

Korea: Q4 GDP (Tuesday), retail sales (Friday).

U.S: S&P Case Shiller Home price, consumer confidence (Tuesday), durable goods (Wednesday), FOMC interest rate meeting and Q4 GDP, new home sales (Thursday), personal income and spending, and employment costs (Friday).

FOMC meeting: The Fed is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged and remain dovish.

US earnings season continues with reports from companies including Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Facebook.

Euro Area: German IFO business survey (Monday), German consumer confidence (Wednesday), EA consumer confidence (Thursday), German inflation, and GDP (Friday).

UK: Employment (Tuesday).

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