A review of the week past and the week ahead 16th of November

What mattered last week:

The S&P500 closed up 2.32% for the week, at new record highs following positive progress on developing a COVID19 vaccine.
Supported by further clarity on the result of the US Presidential election.
Despite the acceleration in new COVID19 cases across much of the world.
Leading to lockdowns in Europe, and a tightening of restrictions in some U.S. states.
Volatility, as measured by the VIX index, fell again to 23.1.
U.S. 10-year yields closed 8bp higher near 0.90%.
Gold closed $60 lower near $1889.00.
Crude oil closed 8% higher near $40.13/bbl.
The ASX200 closed 3.5% higher at 6405.2, following the lead from offshore equity markets.
In FX, the AUDUSD closed mostly unchanged near .7270.

For the week ahead, the key events are:

Australia: RBA Governor Lowe Speech (Monday), RBA meeting minutes (Tuesday), RBA Governor Lowe Speech and wage price index (Wednesday), labour force (Thursday), retail sales (Friday).

Labour force (Thursday): The expectation is for a 30k drop in jobs in October, and the unemployment rate to rise to 7.2%. However, the market is expected to look through this weakness, given the expectation of a stronger number in November, following the easing of lockdown restrictions in Victoria.

New Zealand: Global dairy auction and PPI (Wednesday).

China: House price index, employment, fixed asset investment, retail sales, industrial production (Friday).

Japan: Q3 GDP (Monday), balance of trade (Wednesday), CPI, and Jibun PMI’s (Friday).

Q3 GDP (Monday): GDP is expected to rise by 4.4% in Q3 following a -7.9% contraction in Q2.

U.S: Retail sales, industrial production (Tuesday), housing starts and building permits (Wednesday), jobless claims, and home sales (Thursday).

A host of Fed speakers will be on the wires including Daly, Williams, Bostic, Bullard, and Williams.

Canada: CPI (Wednesday), retail sales (Friday).

Euro Area: EU leaders meeting (Thursday).

UK: CPI (Wednesday), Gfk consumer confidence, and retail sales (Friday).

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