WTI Forecast: Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Drives Crude Oil Back Toward $69

WTI Crude Oil Key Points

• Israel and Lebanon are reportedly nearing a potential ceasefire agreement to end the year-long Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
• Accordingly, stock indices are rising, safe havens like gold are falling, and crude oil prices are on track for their 2^nd-worst day since October.
• The long-term trend in oil prices remains lower, and traders could therefore be keen to sell any bounces back toward the declining 100-day MA and previous-support-turned-resistance near $72.00

According to an Axios report, Israel and Lebanon are nearing a potential ceasefire agreement to end the year-long Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

The proposed deal includes a 60-day transition phase where the Israeli military would withdraw from southern Lebanon, Hezbollah would relocate heavy weapons north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese army would secure the border with UN peacekeepers. The US would oversee the agreement through a monitoring committee, supporting Israeli action against emerging threats.

According to a US official speaking on the situation, "We think we have a deal. We are on the goal line but we haven't passed it yet. The Israeli cabinet needs to approve the deal on Tuesday and something can always go wrong until then.”

In the wake of the report, traders are starting to price in an imminent ceasefire (though arguably they have been partially discounting the potential for an agreement for weeks now), with stock indices rising, safe havens like gold falling, and crude oil prices on track for their 2^nd-worst day since October.

Crude Oil Technical Analysis – WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX

Turning our attention to the technical outlook for oil, WTI’s drop today is reversing almost all of last week’s rally to leave oil back near the $69.00 level as we go to press. From a broader perspective, WTI remains solidly in the middle of its 6-week range between $67.00 and $72.00, leaving little in the way of a strong near-term technical bias.

From a longer-term perspective, the trend in oil prices remains lower, and traders could therefore be keen to sell any bounces back toward the declining 100-day MA and previous-support-turned-resistance near $72.00 (especially with potential concerns of supply disruption receding).

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX