USD CHF

Scott Bessent’s nomination as US treasury secretary has jolted markets in Asia, sending bond yields lower and stirring fresh volatility in USD/CHF. With Swiss policymakers hinting at bold moves and rate differentials still in the driver’s seat, is the pair’s uptrend primed to extend, or is a reversal brewing?

USD/CHF may further retrace the decline from the July high (0.9051) as it trades to a fresh monthly high (0.8938).

USD/CHF is poised to snap a five-week advance with the Trump rally exhausting into major resistance. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

USD/CHF reversed off uptrend resistance with the bulls now searching support within the September uptrend. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.

With Kashkari throwing the word ‘pause’ into the mix ahead of a US CPI report, traders should brace themselves for further USD gains should it come in hotter than expected.

Fed rate cut hopes are fading fast, sending US interests rate soaring and shaking up many low or non-yielding assets. With Trump’s re-election and fresh economic data on the way, silver and the Swiss franc are in the firing line. Could this be the end of the road for further rate cuts?

A four-week rally off the yearly low is now threatening a breakout of the April downtrend post-US elections. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.

USD/CHF rallied more than 4% off the yearly low with the bulls relenting into trend resistance ahead of the Fed. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.

The hotter-than-expected US core consumer price inflation figure for August provided a timely reminder to traders that disinflationary forces should not be taken for granted, printing above even the most hawkish economic forecast. The readjustment in dovish Fed rate cut pricing has acted to underpin the US dollar, delivering a key bullish reversal in the yield sensitive USD/CHF cross.

While they are very different in terms of geography and economic structure, the US dollar index (DXY), USD/JPY and USD/CHF continue to be driven by the exact same thing: market expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates in the months ahead.

USD/CHF comes across as a play on the US interest rate outlook, often moving in lockstep with the evolution of market pricing. So, where Fed rate cut expectations move, the Swissy is likely to follow.

There are few FX pairs with a greater sensitivity to US interest rate expectations than USD/CHF, making it an excellent candidate for traders to look at ahead of the key US ISM services PMI report that will be released later in the session.

Futures traders may be heavily net-short Swiss Francs, but the rapid rise of the currency this week ahead of the SNB meeting suggests some are wary of being caught short a less-dovish central bank.

The USD has remained under pressure thanks to softer data on aggregate prompting refreshed bets of a Fed cut in September. But with EUR/USD and USD/CHF stalling at key levels, traders may need to brace for a dollar bounce.

The economic calendar is beginning to ramp up with a key US inflation report, Fed members speaking ahead of the FOMC minutes and a BOC cash rate decision. Today we look at key levels for EUR/USD, USD/CHF and crude oil.

Commodities are soaring, and of they continue to do so the US dollar could be undervalued as the case for any Fed cuts could evaporate.

The DAX finds itself at a 6-month low with Wall Street indices, with DAX futures also pointing to a weak open. Yields need to pull back for it to stand any chance of recovering, and if they do it may even take some steam out of the USD/CHF rally which is trying to tally up its 12th consecutive bullish day.