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US Dollar Snaps Back, USD/JPY Descending Triangle Breakdown
USD/JPY bears have gone to work over the past two weeks, holding a lower-high even as USD spiked last Friday. And then forcing a breakdown from the descending triangle formation to test below the 151.95 level.
S&P500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of core-PCE data
U.S. stocks are mixed after stronger than forecast data and ahead of the key core PCE inflation report. US GDP was revised higher to 1.9% in Q3, up from 1.8%, boosted by solid consumer spending as inflation continued to cool. Meanwhile, jobless fell to 213k. The data points to the US economy being in a good place raising questions over the Fed's ability to cut rates. US core PCE is expected to rise to 2.8% YoY in October.
S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises despite Trump tariff threats
U.S. stocks are heading higher, building on recent gains, as investors weigh up the implications of Trump's tariffs on its top trade partners. President-elect Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. Looking ahead, the minutes of the November Fed meeting will be released later and could provide more insight into the Fed's outlook for rates.
Wall Street Forecast: DJIA rises after Trump's Treasury Secretary nomination
U.S. stocks are pointing to a stronger open on Monday amid a sign of relief on Wall Street following President-elect Trump's nomination for Treasury Secretary - Scott Bessent, who favours less stringent trade tariffs.. The move higher comes after gains last week, which saw investors shift into cyclical stocks while rotating out of technology.
S&P500 Forecast: SPX falls with PMI data up next
U.S. stocks are heading for a soft open, ending a broadly positive week on a more cautious tone ahead of the release of PMI data. The Dow Jones is on track to rise 1% this week, while the S&P 500 is set for 1.3% gains. The Nasdaq is up 1.6%. Attention is on US PMI data which is expected to show services and manufacturing PMIs rising in November.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises after Nvidia earnings & jobless claims
U.S. stocks are set to open modestly higher after another record quarter for Nvidia as jobless claims fall and geopolitical tensions mount. Nvidia beat estimates for the top and bottom lines in another impressive showing. However, gains are limited owing to disappointment surrounding the revenue growth forecast, which is set to be the slowest in seven quarters. Meanwhile, jobless claims fell to 213k from 217k, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ramps up.
USD regains bullish stride, EUR/USD and USD/JPY look set to converge
The USD index defied the 3-day retracement that dared to defy its bullish trend and now appears on the cusp of a breakout. While this could signify EUR/USD dropping below 105, it may also equate to a bullish breakout on USD/JPY.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises cautiously ahead of Nvidia earnings
US stock indices are edging cautiously higher amid a quiet economic calendar and with attention on corporate earnings. Nvidia is set to report earnings after the close as the share price trades 200% higher YTD and will act as guidance over the health of the AI trade. Geopolitical tensions have calmed and Fed speakers could offer more clues on the Fed's path for rates.
US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Trump Rally Breaks Yearly Range
US Dollar surged 6.9% off the yearly low with the Trump rally fueling a breakout of the 2023 consolidation pattern. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical chart.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls as tensions with Russia rise
U.S. stocks are heading for a weaker at open after a thinly veiled nuclear threat from Russian President Vladimir Putin and as investors digest more corporate earnings. Putin has lowered the bar for a nuclear attack after US President Biden reportedly allowed US missiles to be fired deep into Russia. Risk off is dominating. Walmart is set to open 4% higher after upbeat results and guidance.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises with Nvidia earnings & Fed speak in focus
U.S. stocks are pointing to a mixed start Monday after losses in the previous week and as investors brace themselves for earnings from AI giant Nvidia on Wednesday and plenty of Fed speakers across the week. Last week, US stocks fell sharply after Fed Chair Powell warned that the Fed was in no rush to cut rates. Tesla drives higher, adding to last week's gains on optimism surrounding self-driving under Trump.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls on slower Fed rate cut worries
U.S. stocks fall as investors digest stronger-than-expected US retail sales and more hawkish comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Powell said the Fed was in no rush to cut rates due to the solid economy, resilient jobs market, and interest still holding above 2%. As if on cue, US retail sales came in stronger than expected.
Relentless USD rally extends after Powell hints at slower pace of cuts
The USD bullish rally continued to rage after Powell bluntly said that the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut rates, citing a strong labour market and a "remarkably strong" economy.
USD freight train steams past 105, USD/JPY eyes break of 156
The USD rally is reminiscent of the one seen in July which, if to be repeated, could see it tag 108.29 over the next month. But already it appears to be ahead of schedule. USD/JPY looks set to make a break for 156 which seems within easy reach.
S&P500 Forecast: SPX inches higher after CPI rises, as expected
US stocks are edging lower after losses in the previous session as investors digest the latest US inflation data while looking ahead to more Fed speakers later today. US inflation was in line with forecasts, rising 0.2% MoM (2.6% YoY), while core inflation was also as expected, rising 0.3% MoM (3.3% YoY). The data supports a December rate cut.
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Trump Bump Extends into Resistance
The post-election rally has extended more than 2.7% off the monthly low with USD now testing major resistance. Battle lines drawn on the DXY short-term technical charts.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ extends the post-election rally
U.S. stocks are set to open higher, extending gains from last week. Trump's victory continues to boost the market as investors await the next round of economic data, which could decide whether the rally can continue. US inflation data is due later in the week. Tesla and Bitcoin-related stocks are outperforming as the Trump trade shows few signs of slowing.
Traders were cautious with USD, gold, VIX ahead of the election: COT report
As the latest COT data is up to the close of election day, it shows how traders were positioned ahead of the results. Subsequent market moves suggest they needn't have piled into VIX longs and could have increased net-long exposure to the USD. But they were right to be wary of gold.
S&P500 Forecast: SPX hovers around record highs after a busy week
U.S. stocks are set to open modestly higher on Friday, remaining close to record highs reached this week as the markets digest the Federal Reserve rate cut following Trump's win and as investors look ahead to next week’s inflation data. The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected and te market sees another cut coming in December. However, rate cut expectations for next year have been lowered.
USD, yields jolted as Fed hesitant to be ‘over-easy’ ahead of Trump 2.0
The expected 25 cut was delivered. But the Fed were understandably cautious regarding future cuts, given they don't know which or how many of Trump’s inflationary policies will see the day of light. And that means the current pullback on the USD and yields could be limited.
US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Trump Rally Halted Ahead of Fed
US Dollar surged nearly 5.3% off the yearly low with the Trump election rally failing at major resistance. Battle lines drawn on the weekly technical chart into the Fed.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA hits a record high as Trump wins the Election
U.S. stocks are at a record high after Donald Trump won the election to become the 47th president of the United States. Republicans are on course to take both the Senate and the House, pointing to the possibility of a Republican sweep. This would give Trump a strong platform to implement his policies, including tax cuts and deregulation, as well as trade tariffs against China. USD trades at its highest level since June.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA trades quietly on Election Day
U.S. stocks are edging higher in quiet trade in the calm before the storm as Americans head to the polls to vote for the next U.S. President. In the tightly contested US election, traders are bracing themselves for volatility over the coming sessions until a clear winner is declared. A Trump win and a red sweep are considered the best outcomes for stocks and the USD, owing to expected tax cuts, deregulation, and inflationary policies.