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20231218 - 001 - 01

S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises after in line inflation & Apple earnings

US stock markets are heading higher after the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation brought no nasty surprises and remained muted in December, supporting further reductions in interest rates. Apple beat forecasts on the top and bottom line, helping the share price jump by 4% pre-open.

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January 31, 2025 02:18 PM
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises post-Fed, big tech earnings in focus

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are heading higher after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and amid a post-earnings boost from mega-caps Meta and Tesla. Microsoft is falling after earnings. US GDP was weaker than forecast at 2.3% annualised.

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January 30, 2025 02:37 PM
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S&P500 Forecast: SPX muted ahead of Fed rate decision & big tech earnings

US stocks are heading for a mixed start. They steadied following the sharp selloff at the start of the week, inspired by the cheaper DeepSeek AI model. Attention is on the Federal Reserve rate decision, where policymakers are expected to leave rates unchanged and could adopt a cautious stance. Mega-cap tech earnings kick off, with Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla set to release after the close.

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January 29, 2025 02:24 PM

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U.S. Dollar Holds Support, Stocks Come Back to Life - Fed, ECB Coming Up

Stocks are clawing back losses from the weekly open even as the U.S. Dollar has bounced from a spot of support. The rest of this week is expected to be very busy on the macro front.

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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ tumbles as DeepSeek sparks a $1 trillion tech rout

The U.S. is set for a steeply lower open, with tech stocks leading the charge lower as Chinese startup DeepSeek triggers a $1 trillion tech selloff. AI darling Nvidia is on track for its steepest decline in history. Separately, the US and Colombia pull back from the brink of a trade war.

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January 27, 2025 02:28 PM
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US flash PMIs unlikely to play ball with Trumps easing demands

You don’t need a degree in economics to see Trump’s demands for lower rates flies in the face of a strong US economy. And with Trump likely to try and strong arm the Fed into lower rates, we’re back onto the topic of Fed independence.

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January 24, 2025 01:47 AM
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US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Post-Trump Plunge Tests Support

US Dollar is trading into key support at the monthly lows on the heels of President Trump’s inauguration. Battle lines drawn on the DXY short-term technical charts.

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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ jumps on Trump's AI investment plans

U.S. stocks are set for a positive opening as investors assess comments from President Trump on his plans for AI infrastructure and possible trade tariffs and digested more corporate earnings. The Nasdaq is soaring, outperforming its peers after Trump announced a $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure. The project will see OpenAI team up with Oracle and Softbank in the Stargate project. Separately Netflix beat earnings forecasts and added 19 million new subscribers.

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January 22, 2025 01:57 PM
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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises modestly as the market asses Trump's trade outlook

US stock futures are rising amid relief in the market from a slightly more measured inauguration speech. President Trump did not lay out concrete plans for universal tariffs, bringing initial relief. Since then Trump has mentioned plans to implement trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Oil extends losses on Trump's plans to increase output.

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January 21, 2025 02:25 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA set for strong weekly gains ahead of Trump's inauguration

U.S. stocks are heading higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones set to book the strongest weekly advances since November. Investors are waiting for further clues regarding Tump’s policies next week. Treasury yields have dipped this week and the USD has fallen, helping lift sentiment.

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January 17, 2025 02:38 PM
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EUR/USD Update: The Euro Remains Weak Due to Dovish ECB Comments

The EUR/USD has dropped over 8% from the peak levels seen in September 2024.

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January 16, 2025 08:07 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA falls as retail sales slowed & banks earnings impress

U.S. stocks are heading for a mixed start after weaker-than-expected data keeps rate cut hopes alive and as banks’ quarterly results continue to roll in. Retail sales rose 0.4% MoM and jobless claims rose 217k. However, this is a fine balance, the market won't want to see data weaken too much. Elsewhere Morgan Stanley and Bank of America continued the strong start to earnings season.

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January 16, 2025 02:07 PM
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USD/MXN Forecast: The Mexican Peso Recovers Slightly After CPI

Over the past three sessions, USD/MXN declined by more than 2%, benefiting the Mexican peso.

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January 15, 2025 10:25 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA jumps as core CPI cools & banks earnings roll in

U.S. stocks are surging higher following cooling US inflation data and after banks kick off earnings season on the front foot. US CPI rose 2.9% YoY up from 2.7% in November. Core CPI eased to 3.2% easing some inflationary worries. pulling treasury yields and the USD lower while lifting stocks. US banks kicked off earnings on a positive note with JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo posting solid profits.

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January 15, 2025 02:30 PM
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Pre-CPI USD Price Action Setups: SPX Pullback after DXY Stretch

Tomorrow’s CPI report seems quite important given the run-higher in U.S. Treasury yields that’s taken place even as the Fed has continued to cut. This could have an outsized effect on USD-pairs, bonds and SPX.

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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX rises after PPI data & gradual trade tariff reports

U.S. stocks are heading for a positive open on Tuesday, boosted by softer US PPI data ahead of tomorrow's CPI figures and by hopes of gradual trade tariffs from Trump. PPI rose 3.3% YoY in December, below the 3.4% forecast. Reports that Trump's team could adopt a gradual approach to trade tariffs are also helping the mood and bringing treasury yields modestly lower. Fed speakers are in focus later today.

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January 14, 2025 02:17 PM
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U.S. Dollar Bulls Push Fresh 2-Year Highs Ahead of CPI

USD bulls continue to push and this week brings another installment of CPI, which has been a bullish driver for the Greenback since the Fed’s start of a rate cutting cycle in September.

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January 13, 2025 07:27 PM

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US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD Six-Week Rally Rips into Resistance

The US Dollar rally extended for a sixth-consecutive week with a 4.3% advance now approaching uptrend resistance. Battle lines drawn on the DXY weekly technical chart.

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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ falls after NFP smashed forecasts

U.S. stocks are set to open lower after the US non-farm payroll report smashed forecasts, dampening expectations for Fed rate cuts. 256k jobs were added in December, well ahead of the 164k forecast. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%. The market has lowered rate cut expectations and pushed back the first cut to October.

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January 10, 2025 02:44 PM
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NFP Preview: Will US Jobs Beat Expectations for the 3rd Time in 4 Months?

Leading indicators point to a roughly as-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 150-200K range

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January 8, 2025 03:49 PM
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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA struggles ahead of FOMC minutes

US stocks are struggling amid lingering inflation fears following yesterday's ISM services PMI, a sharp drop in jobless claims, and ahead of the Fed minutes scheduled to be released later today. The Fed is expected to be more cautious regarding rate cuts this year amid signs of a solid economy and concerns over inflationary measures from Trump.

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January 8, 2025 02:15 PM
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USD stands firm as ISM services delivers a sobering start to 2025

The latest batch of ISM reports have been released for December, and they’re not looking good for rate cuts. And that's keeping the USD supported and AUD/USD under pressure.

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US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Bulls Rest After Five-Week Run

A rebound off uptrend support keeps the focus on a breakout of the weekly range heading into NFPs on Friday. Battle lines drawn on the DXY short-term technical charts.