US Presidential election

True to his campaign promise, Trump is playing hardball with tariffs. But will he deliver, or is this simply a classic Trump-bargaining chip? Regardless, AUD/USD is getting caught up in the headlines.

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

It was a lively day’s trade on Monday with Bitcoin reaching news highs above $80k and the USD index retesting its YTD high of 105.62. WTI crude oil and gold are on the brink of breaking key levels to the downside.

The Republican party is just 4 votes shy of the 218 required to take the house for a clean sweep. And that saw bitcoin futures top 80k with a $750 opening gap to kick off the week.

As the latest COT data is up to the close of election day, it shows how traders were positioned ahead of the results. Subsequent market moves suggest they needn't have piled into VIX longs and could have increased net-long exposure to the USD. But they were right to be wary of gold.

The expected 25 cut was delivered. But the Fed were understandably cautious regarding future cuts, given they don't know which or how many of Trump’s inflationary policies will see the day of light. And that means the current pullback on the USD and yields could be limited.

If you haven’t heard already, Donald Trump has been elected as President of the United States. flipped the senate and on the cusp of taking the house. A risk-on session ensued, which played nicely for AUD/JPY bulls - who now have 103 in focus.

Markets are making big moves on the back of Trump’s win and if House results confirm a Republican supermajority, there could be drive for even further highs in stocks and Bitcoin. The US Dollar, however…

With the US election now just one day away, things can turn rapidly across financial markets, particularly because this is turning out to be such a close election and the polls cannot and should not be trusted. Given the fact that the DAX has weakened in the last couple of weeks, this also argues against a sustainable recovery as the prior bullish momentum has been lost.

Large speculators joined asset managers with a net-short exposure to yen futures ahead of the BOJ meeting, although their bearish positioning may be ‘short lived’ if the central bank really is a step closer to raising rates. De-risking also appears to be in the air ahead of the US election looking at positioning across AUD/USD, gold and the VIX.

Election week is finally upon us, and could even supersede the FOMC meeting given its implications for global trade depending on who wins the race to the Whitehouse. And that puts AUD/USD in the crosshairs of volatility.

The yellow metal ended Friday near its session lows, creating some bearish-looking price candles on both the daily and weekly time frames. So the near-term gold forecast is somewhat bearish ahead of the much-anticipated US presidential election and the FOMC’s policy meeting in the week head.

Market participants are closely watching the potential impact of a Trump victory on European and Chinese assets, given the possibility of renewed tariffs. This is the primary factor affecting the EUR/USD forecast, likely limiting gains to around 1.0900 and exposing further downside in the near-term outlook.

A brutal day for risk sent Wall Street indices lower on Thursday, but support levels and the tendency for stocks to rise on the week of a US election could help the S&P 500 and ASX 200. Assuming the wheels don't truly fall off first.

A less-dovish BOJ may have strengthened the yen while weak tech earnings weighed on Wall Street Thursday, but these patters could persist on Friday if they follow their usual pre-election path looking, according to historical data.

market participants are eyeing the possible implications of a Trump victory on European and Chinese assets amid the potential for renewed tariffs. This is the number one factor weighing on the EUR/USD forecast, potentially capping the gains to around 1.0900. More key data will follow in the next couple of days, with Eurozone CPI and US Core PCE to come on Thursday, and the ISM Services PMI and Non-farm Payrolls data will be on the way on Friday.

As we head deeper into a pivotal week and a half, several high-impact events could shape market direction. Investors are bracing for a series of earnings reports from major companies, often referred to as the "Magnificent 7" stocks, alongside the US monthly jobs report. These, combined with the US election on November 5, represent a series of risk events that could sway investor sentiment and thus impact the Dow.