NZD USD

NZD/USD is gaining momentum, with US rates diminishing as the dominant driver. With trade war risks back on the radar, the Kiwi’s trajectory could hinge on global sentiment. Can it weather the turbulence?

The RBNZ took the safe option in delivering a 50bps cut, but hawkish signals have traders buzzing. Can NZD/USD sustain its breakout momentum, or will the US dollar reclaim control?

The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.

Trump’s tariff threats send shockwaves through markets, driving the USD higher as trade-reliant currencies plunge. USD/CAD breaks to pandemic highs, while AUD and NZD reel from fears of escalating protectionism.

NZD/USD bounces back ahead of the 2023 low (0.5774) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 30.

New Zealand’s economy is crawling despite aggressive rate cuts, leaving the RBNZ staring down a crucial decision: play it safe or unleash Adrian Orr’s hallmark “shock and awe” with a bold move next week. Could a 75bp cut be the surprise markets aren’t ready for?

Hot CPI from Canada, a rise of geopolitical tensions and increased threat of tariffs played nicely for commodity FX bulls, with AUD, CAD and NZD leading the pack among FX majors on Tuesday. And there could be some wriggle room for further gains.

Silver and NZD/USD have plunged to fresh lows as higher U.S. rates and dollar strength dominate. But with a quiet calendar next week, the risk of a near-term short squeeze is rising. Key chart levels are in play, offering traders new opportunities on both sides of the market.

NZD/USD is on the cusp of testing the September low (0.6107) as it slips to a fresh monthly low (0.6108).

AUD/JPY looks to Wall Street for its next directional move while NZD/USD is down for a fifth day ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ meeting. But if they fail to deliver a dovish 50b cut, it could prompt profit taking from bears and weigh further on AUD/NZD.

Upside in GBP/USD and NZD/USD has been fuelled by a combination of US dollar weakness and improved sentiment towards the UK and New Zealand economies given their cyclical characteristics. But with a lot of good news now priced in, and having run so hard already, both screen as vulnerable to reversal should the macro picture change.

Both AUD/USD and NZD/USD closed at 2024 highs on Monday, benefiting from continued gains in riskier asset classes and speculation policymakers in China may move aggressively to head off a worrying slowdown in the world’s second largest economy. With the RBA interest rate decision out later Tuesday, it promises to be a volatile session for the antipodean currencies in Asia.

Having demonstrated an incredibly strong relationship with dairy futures over much of August, coinciding with the Fed moving to signal the imminent start of its next easing cycle, that influence over NZD/USD has since been replaced by sentiment towards the global economic outlook. That’s currently in the driving seat.

Something unusual has happened in FX markets this week that may keep the Australian and New Zealand dollars buoyant against the USD: the offshore-traded Chinese yuan, or CNH, has continued to strengthen against the greenback, bucking the trend seen in other major currencies such as the Japanese yen and euro.

About the only thing rising as fast as dairy prices is New Zealand business confidence right now, and both are beneficial for NZD/USD which has surged to seven-month highs. Who said Kiwis can’t fly?

With rate cut priced at every FOMC meeting over the next year, markets are betting on the Fed being able to deliver a soft economic landing. For currency pairs such as USD/JPY and NZD/USD, whether that morphs into a hard landing will have vastly divergent ramifications, making incoming US economic data incredibly important.

Plenty of FX names have enjoyed a rare moment in the sun against the almighty US dollar recently, but few as much as the New Zealand dollar. NZD/USD has been milking the dollar’s droopiness, surging to fresh multi-month highs on the back of soaring dairy prices. The latest leg higher has propelled the Kiwi through important technical resistance, pointing to the increased risk that this rally may have legs.