GER40

With the US out, it has understandably been a quiet day so far in Europe where major indices were trading mixed but holding onto their recent impressive gains. Some of the major European indices hit new record highs last week, including the high-flying German DAX index.

European stocks traded mixed with Spain’s Ibex rising to a fresh weekly high and Germany’s DAX off its earlier lows at mid-day in London as government bond yields eased off their earlier highs.

DAX analysis: After climbing an impressive 18% last year and 20% the year before, the DAX has made a decent start to the new year, up a good 2.2% year-to-date. But it is early days and with valuations looking a little stretched and the economy not doing so well, we could see correction first before the market resumes higher.

This week’s US inflation data may impact Wall Street but will likely have limited implications for European indices. But one factor that is certainly weight on sentiment on this side of the pond is political uncertainty in Germany. Against this backdrop, our DAX forecast is turning bearish in the short term, especially if the German index now breaks a key support area that it was testing at the time of writing.

With the US election now just one day away, things can turn rapidly across financial markets, particularly because this is turning out to be such a close election and the polls cannot and should not be trusted. Given the fact that the DAX has weakened in the last couple of weeks, this also argues against a sustainable recovery as the prior bullish momentum has been lost.

You would have thought that on the back of a stronger showing from the Eurozone GDP that the DAX and other European indices would have been rallying today. Well, that hasn’t been quite the case as traders digested a deluge of mixed earnings while the handover from China was again not great with the markets there falling. Meanwhile, a technical breakdown means the DAX forecast has turned somewhat bearish in the near-term outlook.

The DAX was trading slightly lower, down for the third consecutive day, although it was only around 1.5% off from the recently achieved record high. Far from a turmoil, in other words. But equally, the loss of bullish momentum may be a sign that the markets could go in reverse soon.

Today’s German wholesale inflation data pointed to further ECB rate cuts in December, keeping the bullish DAX forecast intact – for now, anyway. However, ongoing weakness in the Eurozone economy, coupled with political uncertainty in the US – with the presidential election now only two weeks away – and not to mention the fact China’s markets don’t seem to be finding a sustainable recovery despite ongoing government stimulus efforts, all point to a potential dop in the coming weeks.

The S&P 500 extends losses to third week amid raised geopolitical risks and rising bond yields. Concerns over the escalation of the situation in the Middle East is at the forefront of investors’ minds. The situation remains volatile with Israel seeking revenge for Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Saturday.

DAX technical levels and factors to watch on the German index as it tests the pivotal 18,000 level with the focus turning on the ECB rate decision, while US sticky inflation concerns make unwelcome return ahead of PPI data.

German DAX index makes a sluggish start to Q2 after a sharp 5-month rally amid profit-taking, as correction risks linger. DAX technical analysis suggests more evidence is needed to confirm at least a short-term high has been hit.

What has driven the German index to record highs and can the rally persist? US investors are back, with Nvidia earnings coming into focus this week. DAX technical analysis shows index is testing key support.

The German index hit another record high on Friday, but the risk of a potential correction in tech sector is increasing. For now, the DAX continues to point higher, which means the bears must continue to wait for the right signal.

Risk appetite diminishes after some disappointing earnings, while China’s deflation threat held back equities ahead of Lunar holidays despite stimulus measures. DAX technical analysis point to fading bullish momentum at all-time highs, just as the S&P 500 nears the 5000 mark following a sharp tech-fueled rally.

DAX outlook: Dovish ECB could support European stocks, as promising signs emerge for global indices after slow start for risk assets in 2024. DAX technical outlook points to a new record high.

Risk appetite improved a little in early European trade, as the major EU indices and US futures bounced back a little. However, by mid-day, those gains had evaporated, although the downside was limited as traders were unwilling to commit in either direction ahead of key US employment data.

Welcome to the first edition of Technical Tuesday for 2024. In this report, we will get technical on the DAX, FTSE and China A50.