Central Bank

The consensus is 50bp, market pricing leans towards 75bp. Whatever the RBNZ decide to do today, it comes down to whether they will signal further cuts, as to whether NZD/USD continues to depreciate or bounce on a "sell the rumour, buy the fact" reaction.

The USD bullish rally continued to rage after Powell bluntly said that the Fed may not be in a hurry to cut rates, citing a strong labour market and a "remarkably strong" economy.

With Kashkari throwing the word ‘pause’ into the mix ahead of a US CPI report, traders should brace themselves for further USD gains should it come in hotter than expected.

We finally get a bit of a breather from the US election and can shift out attention to today’s BOE and FOMC meetings, making it an ideal time to catch up on GBP/USD.

AUD/JPY looks to Wall Street for its next directional move while NZD/USD is down for a fifth day ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ meeting. But if they fail to deliver a dovish 50b cut, it could prompt profit taking from bears and weigh further on AUD/NZD.

The USD is surging and markets are betting that the RNZZ could cut rates by 100bp by December. Failure to do hint at such a move could see AUD/NZD track AUD/USD lower.

Next week brings three major central bank meetings, none of which seem to be on the same page policy wise. The Fed are expected to cut by 25bp and potentially set the record straight on another ‘50bp’ cut November, whereas there’s also an outside chance the BOJ may surprise with an interest rate hike given their renewed hawkish narrative. And while the Bank of England are expected to hold rates, a soft set of inflation figures could bring forward bets of a November cut.

NZD/USD has risen towards resistance despite speculation that the RBNZ could cut their cash rate by 25bp tomorrow, from 5.5% to 5.25%. And not for the first time, money markets and economists disagree.

Traders are clearly keeping a close eye on the 158 handle after USD/JPY spiked up to it. Note that we're yet to see a daily close above 158 since late April, which landed one day before the MOF first intervened this year.

For the first week in a while, US data is not dominating the market focus. With a key US inflation report and FOMC meeting freshly in the rear-view mirror, markets can now shift attention to domestic data. Three top-tier central banks meet next week, including the RBA on Tuesday, followed by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday. UK inflation data on Wednesday could set the tone for what to expect at future BOE meetings. Flash PMIs across Asia, Europe, and the US then close out the week, which can shape expectations for future growth and inflationary pressures.

With a key US inflation report being delivered less than six hours ahead of an FOMC meeting, it leaves plenty of potential for volatile swings leading into the headline event of the week. The Bank of Japan also announce their monetary policy decision, which puts USD/JPY onto the radar for currency traders.

AUD/USD could be susceptible to movement from minutes of the recent FOMC and RBA meetings. But with Australian unemployment data hitting a three-year high, a softer set of wage figures could bring forward bets of a rate cut.

Australia’s Q4 data report will be warmly welcomed for those calling for RBA cuts, with all headline data points coming in beneath expectations.

EUR/USD is testing key support near 1.0800 with major crosswinds from month-end flows, the Fed, and NFP this week.

As with any central bank, when the Bank of Canada (BOC) changes interest rates, it can have a knock-on effect to stocks, indices and currencies. Find out everything you need to know about the BOC and how it’s decisions impact financial markets.

With a favourable macro backdrop and technical indications pointing higher, see why we could see new records in gold prices in 2024.

Stronger US growth and similar inflation on both sides of the Atlantic could lead to more aggressive interest rate cuts from the ECB, boosting EUR/USD.