Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Vertical as Trump Tariffs Risk Trade War

Gold Technical Forecast: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Gold prices mark sixth-consecutive weekly advance to fresh record highs- Resistance in view
• XAU/USD rally fueled by Trump tariff tensions- U.S. CPI / PPI on tap next week
• Resistance 2900 (key), 3000/31, 3279– Support 2790/99, 2736, 2624 (key)

Gold prices closed a sixth-consecutive daily advance on Friday with the XAU/USD rally extending more than 10% from the yearly open. Concerns that the Trump tariffs could fuel a broader trade war have continued to bolster gold prices with the bulls marking fresh record highs into the close of the week. While the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable in the days ahead as the advance approaches uptrend resistance. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD weekly technical chart.

Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Weekly Price Forecast we noted that XAU/USD had, “rebounded off uptrend support into the start of the month with the advance now within striking distance of pivotal resistance. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 2736- losses should be limited the median-line IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach above the high-close needed to mark uptrend resumption.”

Gold broke higher two-weeks later with price extending nearly 11.2% off the January lows. The rally is now within striking distance of uptrend resistance near 2900, and the focus is on a reaction into this slope IF reached. Note that weekly momentum has now closed back above 70 and keeps this push viable into the open next week.

Initial weekly support rests with the 2024 swing high / February objective monthly open at 2790/99- note that the 75% parallel converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and losses below this slope would suggest a more significant high was registered this week / a larger correction is underway. Subsequent support seen at the 2024 high-week close at 2736 with medium-term bullish invalidation now set to the objective yearly open at 2624.

A topside breach / weekly close above the upper parallel would likely fuel another accelerated advance towards the next major technical consideration seen at 3000/31- a region defined by the 2.272% extension of the 2011 decline and the 1.618% extension of the 2022 advance. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

Bottom line: The gold breakout is approaching uptrend resistance at record highs on the back of a six-week rally. Looking for a reaction up here in the week ahead. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 2900- losses should be limited to this week’s low IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch with a close above the upper parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.

Keep in mind that we get the release of key U.S. inflation data next week with CPI & PPI on tap. The market’s will also be reacting to expected announcements from President Trump on new “reciprocal” tariffs. It is promising to be an interesting week for gold prices- watch the weekly closes here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.

Key US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

• British Pound (GBP/USD)
• Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
• US Dollar Index (DXY)
• S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow
• Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
• Crude Oil (WTI)
• Euro (EUR/USD)
• Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
• Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com

Follow Michael on X @MBForex