EURUSD and Gold Analysis: Key Levels for the Week Ahead

Key Events for the Week Ahead:

• US Retail Sales (Tuesday)
• Federal Funds Rate & FOMC Meeting (Wednesday)
• BOE Official Bank Rate (Thursday)
• BOJ Policy Rate (Friday)
• ECB President Lagarde Speech (Friday)

The EURUSD has rebounded positively after the ECB's rate cut decision, which was already priced into the markets. With the ECB expected to maintain a stable, data-driven approach through the end of the year, major volatility is likely to come from the US Dollar side as markets shift focus to the FOMC statement and US federal funds rate decision.

In contrast, gold continues to act as a favored safe haven amidst inflationary pressures, a weakening dollar, and uncertainty driven by global political and economic factors, particularly as central banks adjust their monetary policies in September. Investors can expect heightened volatility next week with the FOMC statement and BOE/BOJ policy announcements on the horizon.

Technical Outlook

EURUSD, Gold Analysis: EURUSD – Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

The EURUSD has rebounded from the lower end of its 1.10 range, supported by a relative strength index (RSI) bounce from neutral territory. Resistance levels to watch are at 1.1120, where the trendline connecting lower highs between August (1.12) and September (1.1155) stands. A break above this level would confirm a move toward the 1.12 and 1.113 levels.

On the downside, if the decline from August highs (1.12) to September lows (1.10) does not form a continuation pattern, a breakout below 1.0970 could see support at 1.0890 and 1.0790.

EURUSD, Gold Analysis: XAUUSD – Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Gold finally broke out of its August consolidation, surging past the 2530 resistance to reach the anticipated 2570-2580 zone. With prices now facing resistance, a correction back toward the 2530-2500 range is possible. However, if gold maintains its primary uptrend and closes above the 2580 range, it could set the stage for a further move towards 2610 and 2660.

--- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT – on X: @Rh_waves