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Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA set for a quiet start below 40,000
US stocks head for a quiet open as the CPI-fueled rally runs out of steam. Several Fed speakers have warned that rates need to stay high for longer, and they want to see more evidence of inflation cooling before cutting rates. The Dow Jones remains below the key 40,000 level that it breached yesterday. There is no high-impacting data today. Attention will remain on Fed speakers.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ steadies after jobless claims, Fed speak
US stocks pause for breath after yesterday's rally following cooler CPI data. While the data boosted rate cut optimism, NY Fed President Williams warned that more evidence of inflation cooling was needed in order to cut rates. Separately, Walmart is set to open sharply higher after beating earnings and revenue forecasts.
AUD/USD breaks out, USD/JPY rolls over amidst worst day of 2024 for USD
The US dollar suffered its worst day of the year and Fed fund futures now imply with near certainty that the Fed will cut by September. And that saw AUD/USD breakout in style and USD/JPY roll over, breaking below two handles on Wednesday.
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It’s time to reassess the US dollar outlook
With US economic data delivering negative surprises at rates not seen over a year, with signs disinflationary forces are growing, it’s time for a rethink on the outlook for the US dollar. The era of selling rips rather than buying dips may be upon us.
USD falters ahead of US CPI, ASX set to track Wall Street higher? Asian Open
The USD was weaker despite higher producer prices, as traders placed greater emphasis on last month's figures being revised lower. And that now sees a 51% chance of a September Fed cut, according to Fed Fund futures.
EUR/USD: High bar for US economic data creates asymmetric upside risks
it’s now up to incoming data and news flow to continue fuelling the bullish USD narrative, otherwise it risks sparking a reversal. We may be seeing the inception of such a move in EUR/USD right now.
US dollar stabilises ahead of Powell, PPI, USD/JPY eyes 157: Asian Open
The US dollar has regained its footing heading into a Powell speech and US PPI report, whilst USD/JPY looks set to break resistance and head for 157.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA extends last week's gain ahead of Fed speakers
US stocks are set to continue the recent bullish run as treasury yields fall and attention turns to Wednesday's CPI report. Dow Jones posted its best weekly performance since December last week, supported by earnings and signs of a weaker labour market. US Fed speakers are in focus today ahead of Wednesday's CPI report, Recent Fed speakers have supported the view that rates may need to stay high for longer.
Futures traders reduce yen speculation after BOJ intervention: COT report
With asset managers and large speculators trimming long and short exposure to yen futures, their appetite to speculate on the currency appears to be waning after BOJ interventions.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA steady, jobless claims & Fed speakers in focus
US stocks are set for a quiet open as the market weighs up more Fed officials supporting high rates for longer, with signs of a cooling jobs market. US jobless claims rose by more than expected, which, after Friday's softer non-farm payroll, could indicate that the labour market is starting to ease. Earnings continue to roll in with Arm falling after FY 2025 revenue guidance disappointed.
How US government bond auctions work and why they’re important to financial markets
Bond markets make the financial world go round, helping to grease the wheels of commerce, allowing the economy activity to expand. But when too much debt is issued, it can overwhelm demand, causing borrowing costs to spike which can be detrimental to the economy.
USD ‘rebound’ lacks the enthusiasm of last week’s selloff: Asian Open
The US dollar may have risen for a third day, yet bulls lack the conviction that bears displayed last week. And that suggests this bounce could be corrective.
Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA inches lower as treasury yields rise
US stocks are pointing to a modestly weaker start as the market continues to assess when the Federal Reserve may start to cut interest rates and by how much. Comments from Fed speakers yesterday raised questions over whether the Fed would cut at all in 2024. In the absence of economic data, Fed speakers remain under the spotlight today. Attention is also on earnings, with Uber set to open lower after posting a loss.
US dollar outlook Eliminate market noise using this indicator on DXY directional risks
As one of the most liquid futures contracts worldwide that combines fundamentals and technical views, it compresses huge amounts of information to provide an instant guide on where markets see directional risks for short-term US interest rates.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX edges higher ahead of Fed speakers
US stocks are pointing to a modestly higher start as more earnings roll in and as expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts remain in focus and after Disney earnings fail to impress. The US economic calendar is light today, so attention will be on Fed speakers and corporate updates. Disney is set to open 4% lower despite posting EPS of $1.21 vs the $1.10 expected.
USD/JPY: Bullish case eroding fast as US economic data rolls over
The game for USD/JPY changed last week. The likely intervention from the BOJ on at least one occasion to support the Japanese yen, coupled with a large reversal in US bond yields, means the extremely successful strategy of buying dips may have run its course near-term.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX jumps after a weaker NFP report & Apple results
US stocks are pointing to a stronger open after weaker than expected non-farm payroll report which has seen the market bring forward Fed rate cuts and after Apple's results. Apple announced a $110 million share buyback, the largest in US history. Attention turns to US services PMI data which is due to report shortly.
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Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises post-Fed, Apple reports after the close
US stocks are set to open higher as the market digests the latest Federal Reserve meeting and looks ahead to tomorrow's non-far payroll report. The Fed left rates on hold and calmed worries of a rate hike. However, Fed chair Powell also warned that rates would stay high for longer. Apple is due to report after the close amid concerns over iPhone sales and China.
Another BOJ intervention may have just stole the show from the Fed
It was the Japanese yen which stole the show after Jerome Powell’s press conference, with USD/JPY falling over 450 pips on another suspected BOJ intervention.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ falls despite AMZN earnings & ahead of the Fed
US stocks are pointing to a lower start in cautious trade ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged as inflation rose across the first quarter and as the jobs market remains resilient. ADP payrolls were stronger than expected. Fed jitters are overshadowing results from Amazon, which beat forecasts.
US dollar ‘bull’ dog unleashed, AUD/USD crushed on eve of Fed: Asian Open
A surprise rise in US wage pressures weighed on sentiment on the eve of the Fed meeting, sending the US dollar broadly higher, Wall Street lower as AUD/USD suffered its second worst day of the year.
S&P 500 Forecast: SPX falls & is on track to decline across April
Stocks are set to open lower and are set to fall across April, marking the first monthly decline since October. The selloff in stocks comes as the market frets over sticky inflation and the prospect of higher rates for longer. Today, the Fed kicks off its 2-day FOMC meeting and no change in rates is expected at the announcement tomorrow. Amazon will report after the close.
US dollar, yields look set to close the gap with commodities
Momentum turned higher for the US dollar on Friday and the US 2-year is reconsidering a break above 2%, which could see them close the gap with the CRM commodities index - which have led both markets higher this year.