ASX200 stalls ahead of NAB business confidence data

An impressive performance despite an ongoing six-week lockdown in Greater Sydney and lockdowns in Victoria and Queensland, the effects are likely to be viewed tomorrow in the release of the NAB Business Survey.

Last month the business conditions component of the NAB Business survey fell to +24, from May's record high reading of +36. The decline was broad-based across segments, capturing Melbourne's snap lockdown in early June but predating Sydney's current lockdown.

Due to Sydney's extended lockdown and rising price pressures, the expectation is for business conditions to fall again to +10 when the data is released tomorrow at 11.30 am.

Also likely to influence the near-term direction of the ASX200, the release of earnings reports over the next three weeks, and how much further iron ore prices fall in the near term.

Further to the last point, China trade data over the weekend showed that Chinese demand for iron ore fell again in July, with imports at their lowest in 14 months. At the same time, combined iron ore exports from Australia and Brazil have surged partly due to Brazilian powerhouse Vale lifting supply back towards pre-Covid levels.

Iron ore prices have fallen by ~20% in the past three weeks, from $220 p/t to $170 p/t, a move that has weighed on the prices of the big miners. BHP is now trading about -5.50% below its July high, with FMG over 15% below its July high.

Technically the ASX200 today formed a daily Doji candle, very close to the top of 6-month trend channel resistance at 7600, a sign the strength of the uptrend is waning.

As a result, we would be very cautious about chasing the rally at current levels and prefer to buy a pullback leaning against trend channel support near 7200.

Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of 9^th of August 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd（“我们”、“我们的”）网站可能会不时包含第三方提供的其他网站和/或资源的链接。这些链接和/或资源仅供参考，我们无法掌控这些资讯的内容，对其内容不提供任何认可。我们网站上的任何分析、意见、评论或基于研究的资讯仅供参考和教育目的，在任何情况下均不旨在成为投资邀请或要约，亦非买卖建议。如果您不确定，您应该始终就您是否适合在任何相关市场进行投机以及承担相关风险的能力寻求独立建议。对于我们网站上的资讯的完整性或准确性，我们不作任何明示或暗示的陈述或保证。我们没有义务更新任何此类资讯。

因此，对于您或任何第三方因使用我们网站上的信息而引起或与之相关的任何损失或损害，我们（和/或我们的关联公司）概不负责或承担任何责任（我们无法根据法律或适用的监管制度限制或排除的任何义务或责任除外），并且在此明确否认任何此类责任。

City Index 是 StoneX Financial Pty Ltd. 的交易名称。

此处提供的资讯为一般性质，未考虑您的目标、财务状况或需求。

虽然我们在编制此资讯时已尽合理努力，但不表示我们就其完整性或准确性作出任何明示或默示的陈述或保证。此资讯并非投资邀请或要约，亦非买卖建议。

StoneX 建议您在做出任何财务投资决策之前寻求独立的财务和法律建议。杠杆差价合约和外汇交易风险较高，并非适合所有投资者。您的损失可能会超过您的初始投资，且在标的资产中不持有任何权益。

在决定购买或持有我们的产品之前，请务必参阅我们的《金融服务指南》(FSG) 和《产品披露声明》(PDS)，详见 www.cityindex.com/zh-au/terms-and-policies。根据我们市场风险管理的需要，我们可能会按照与您相反的方向进行交易。我们的《目标市场认定》(TMD) 也可从 www.cityindex.com/zh-au/terms-and-policies 查阅。

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727，AFSL 345646)，地址为Suite 28.01, 264 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia（澳大利亚新南威尔士州悉尼乔治街 264 号 28.01 室，邮编 2000）是差价合约发行人，我们的产品为场外交易产品。