A review of the week past and the week ahead

What mattered last week:

• The S&P500 fell 0.77%, as the market continues to balance the tug-of-war between positive news on a Covid19 vaccine and rising Covid19 cases/tighter social distancing restrictions.
• Worse than expected jobless claims and retail sales data in the U.S. confirms the economic recovery will be choppy into year-end.
• Economic data in Europe also slowed after its return to lockdown.
• In Australia, the economic data was better than expected. This trend should continue into yearend following the reopening in Victoria from lockdown.
• Volatility, as measured by the VIX index, closed mostly unchanged at 23.7.
• U.S. 10-year yields closed 8bp lower, near 0.82%.
• Gold closed ~$19 lower, near $1871.00.
• Crude oil closed higher for a third week at $42.42/bbl.
• The ASX200 closed 2.09% higher at 6539.2, driven by gains in financial and energy stocks.
• In FX, the AUDUSD closed the week above .7300c for the first time since August.

For the week ahead, the key events are:

Australia: Markit manufacturing PMI (Monday), private capital expenditure (Wednesday).

New Zealand: Retail sales Q3 (Monday), balance of trade (Thursday), ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence (Friday).

China: Industrial profits (Friday).

Japan: Nothing of note.

U.S: Markit flash PMIs (Monday), S&P Case Shiller home price index (Tuesday), durable good orders, personal income and spending, new home sales (Wednesday), FOMC minutes (Thursday).

• FOMC Minutes (Wednesday): The minutes are likely to remain dovish but as the last FOMC meeting took place before the positive vaccine news from Pfizer and Moderna the Fed’s risk assessment is likely to be outdated.

Canada: Nothing of note:

Euro Area: German and EA Markit flash PMIs (Monday), German Ifo business survey (Tuesday).

• EA flash PMIs (Monday): The market is expecting a fall in business PMIs in response to lockdown measures. The full national lockdown in France should see a sharp contraction, while the German data will reflect the milder nature of the German restrictions.  

UK: Markit flash PMI’s (Monday), nationwide housing prices (Friday).