Whilst FedEx Sounds The Alarm For Global Trade Can UBS Weather The Storm

Whilst FedEx Corp is on the brink of breaking key support, UPS is just 4% from its YTD. Disappointing earnings and a lowered full-year outlook saw FedEx plummet over -10% at market open last Tuesday, and it was the main reason behind the Dow Jones Transportation sell-off whilst also triggering fresh concerns for the global economy.

We can see that FedEx performance can be taken as a bellwether for global trade by comparing the YoY% of FedEx with YoY Trade volume. Whilst the correlation is not perfect, its still a decent enough proxy and would suggest that global trade is to drop further (and therefor, global growth and potential for further easing from central bankers).

Looking at the daily FedEx chart, prices has been oscillating between 148 – 178 since June, although the 200-day average capped as resistance near the top of the range before rolling over to the low of the range. In fact, FedEx closed to a 3-year low yesterday and sits just ticks above key support.

• Given the series of lower highs and pick-up of bearish momentum, we’re waiting for prices to break the June 2016 low to signal a resumption of the bearish trend.
• Bearish target is around 120 (just above the January low).
• Whilst the trend remains bearish below 176.76, we’d step aside with a break above 154.57 as it warns of a corrective bounce from key support. We’d then look to reassess the potential for a short trade if a new lower high is created, beneath 176.76.

Interestingly, their rival UPS isn’t facing the same headwinds with the stock trading just 4% from this year’s highs. Still, it’s failed to retest the 125 high so there is potential for this one to roll over too. But perhaps another way to look at this is as an inter-sector pairs trade, given the ratio between UPS/FDX has been rising sharply.

• Looking at the weekly chart, USD has outperformed FDX on a relative basis since early 2018 when the ratio broke above its bearish trendline. Given the ratio is rising rapidly, there could still be some juice left for this pair.
• Last week’s bearish elongated Doji warns of near-term weakness, yet the stock continues to outperform Fedex on a relative basis
• Price action on UPS broke above its bearish correction line in July and continues to print higher lows to show the trend is bullish.
• A break above 125 assumes bullish continuation, whilst the potential for a deeper correction remains whilst it trades below 123.63

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