Week ahead

Crude Oil Week Ahead: After OPEC’s fifth downward revision for 2024 oil forecasts and additional cuts for 2025, crude oil prices stabilized near their 4-year support zone, buoyed by China’s stimulus commitments and significant Middle East reforms. Will it hold on FOMC week?

AUD/USD finds itself at a 13-month low after suffering its worst week in 19. Strong US data has propelled the USD higher while the Aussie also continues to track the Chinese yuan lower. A break of a key trendline from the 2022 low seems probable.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil faces volatility risks ahead of the OPEC meeting, now rescheduled for Thursday to accommodate all members and avoid a clash with the Gulf Summit. Sideways price movements persist, leaning towards a bearish bias for 2025.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil’s 4-year support level has amplified its importance as supply disruption risks rise again amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, OPEC’s upcoming meeting on Sunday could reshape production quotas and influence market dynamics.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil prices face mounting pressures between clean energy transitions, geopolitical risks, and surplus concerns for 2025. Prices are now testing a critical 4-year support zone, challenging the continuation of the broader downtrend.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: With volatility still restrained post-US election and FOMC week, crude oil markets remain poised for a potential breakout as key events from OPEC, the IEA, and economic data from China and the US are on the horizon. The longer the price remains within this tight range, the more significant any upcoming breakout may be.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: In the coming week, crude oil markets face heightened volatility risks due to a closely contested US election on Tuesday, uncertain FOMC meeting on Thursday, and persistent geopolitical conflicts.

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil prices gained 4% last week, closing near $71.70 as escalating strikes in the Middle East fueled uncertainty around a potential ceasefire or further retaliatory actions. With strong upside risk, oil prices are expected to navigate a busy week packed with key events related to employment and economic growth indicators.

Nvidia’s earnings report on Thursday has the potential to drive sentiment for the Nasdaq 100, particularly if it misses estimates for the first quarter in seven. Traders will then focus on the PCE inflation report on Friday to assess Fed policy – assuming Jerome Powell hasn’t made it crystal clear what to expect at his Jackson Hole speech later today. Which seems unlikely.

Flash PMIs are the notable economic data releases nest week, although the headline event will be Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium. It will allow him to hammer home the Fed’s stance on Friday, and therefore likely to take precedence over the FOMC minutes released two days prior. Canada’s inflation report is key for BOC watchers, who continue to make their cash rate decision on a ‘per meeting’ basis.

It has been a turbulent week for markets overall, even if the baulk of it arrived on Monday. The USD index has regained the week’s earlier losses after the Fed quelled fears of emergency rate cuts. But that could change if next week’s US retail sales or CPI figures surprises to the downside. We also have a potentially live RBNZ meeting, UK CPI and Australian employment figures to contend with.

It has been another volatile week for traders thanks to weaker US economic data, a dovish Fed and a refreshingly hawkish Bank of Japan. ISM services is a key event from the US next week, but apart from that it is mainly second-tier data from the APAC region. And that means appetite for risk might be the main driver for markets next week. But given the larger moves already seen, we may need to lower out expectations for volatility unless a fresh catalyst arrives.

Harris replacing Biden may not be a radical overhaul where policies are concerned, but it has certainly brought the Democrat’s prospects for maintaining power back from the brink of death. From a market perspective, it means Trump is no longer a ‘walk in’ President, and political headlines from the US are no longer driving sentiment for now. Thankfully, we have intertest rate decisions from the FOMC, BOE and BOJ to drive sentiment, along with NFP and Australia’s CPI report for good measure.

Whether it is Biden stepping aside or Trump grabbing headlines with policy hints, it is difficult to see US politics taking a back seat next week. Fed watchers have the US PCE inflation report to look forward to, and global central bank watchers have flash PMIs. The BOC are expected to cut rates, but will they signal more next week?

US data steps away from the limelight to make way for inflation reports from the UK, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan. And throw in an ECB meeting, Australian employment report and the CCP's Third Plenum for good measure.

Traders will keep a close eye on the outcome of the second round of the French elections at the Asian open next week, as it could have a direct impact on European markets. Given that the far right failed to secure a majority government, there are upside risks for the euro if they do not perform as well as currently expected. Jerome Powell will also address the Senate Banking Committee ahead of a key inflation report next week. Both events have the potential to shape policy expectations for 2025. NZ dollar traders should closely monitor the RBNZ meeting to see if they maintain the hawkish stance that surprised markets in their prior meeting.

It's possible we'll know who won the first round of France's election by the time markets open in Asia next week, which means the euro and European index futures could be more active than usual. Traders should then look to the pound and FTSE for pre-election jitters, although once again it could be Asian markets that get to witness the results. Despite the public holiday on Thursday, the US economic calendar is also packed. Two key ISM reports for manufacturing and services land before July 4th, alongside JOLTS and ADP employment reports, which are the warm-up acts for NFP on Friday.