CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖

USDJPY, Nasdaq Forecast: Steep Drops Ahead of NVDIA Earnings and Tokyo CPI

Article By: ,  Market Analyst
Tuesday 11:54 AM

Key Events:

  • USD/JPY's decline faces reversal risks ahead of Tokyo Core CPI and U.S. Core PCE
  • NVIDIA stock dropped 3% this week ahead of earnings reports
  • Trump’s tariff deadlines for Canada and Mexico approach at the end of the month

USDJPY Outlook

The Japanese yen may have reached a turning point against the dollar as it retests support levels near December 2024 lows. Optimism surrounding the yen has been driven by strong economic growth and inflation data, with Friday’s Tokyo Core CPI release expected to confirm or challenge this sentiment.

Following Japan’s inflation data, the U.S. Core PCE— the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge— will also be reported on Friday, influencing market expectations regarding inflation risks and the Fed’s rate policy.

Nasdaq Outlook

Nasdaq retreated toward 21,300 this week, down nearly 300 points from Monday’s open. Alongside U.S. inflation concerns, President Donald Trump reaffirmed during a Monday press conference that tariffs on Mexico and Canada will proceed "on time, on schedule," sustaining market uncertainty.

NVIDIA’s earnings report on Wednesday will be closely watched as it reflects the company’s performance amid tariff concerns and increasing competition in the AI sector. NVIDIA’s stock has declined nearly 3% this week, not only due to trade tensions and competitive pressures but might also be due to yen strength and carry trade concerns impacting investor sentiment.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

USDJPY Forecast: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

The USD/JPY pair remains indecisive between the 149 and 150 levels, aligning with December 2024 lows. A decisive close below 148 could trigger a decline toward the lower boundary of USD/JPY’s duplicated uptrend channel (January 2023–July 2024), with key support at 146.90-147 and 143.60—levels corresponding to Fibonacci retracement ratios of 0.618 and 0.786, respectively.

On the upside, if the pair climbs above 151.60, potential targets extend to 155, 157, and 159.

Nasdaq Forecast: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Nasdaq's recent drop below 22,000 has revived double-top risks on the chart. The key neckline of this pattern lies at 20,700, a level where the index previously rebounded between December 2024 and February 2025.

A firm close below 20,700 could accelerate losses toward support at 20,300, 20,000, 19,700, and 19,150. Conversely, Nasdaq must reclaim 21,700 to restore bullish sentiment, with further upside expectations at 22,200. A clear hold above this level could push the index toward record highs at 22,800 and 23,300.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

You Tube: Commodities and Forex Trading with Razan Hilal, CMT

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

© City Index 2025