US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report Preview (DEC 2024)

US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)

The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a 227K rise in November versus forecasts for a 200K print, while Average Hourly Earnings unexpectedly held steady at 4.0% during the same period.

US Economic Calendar – December 6, 2024

A deeper look at the report showed the Unemployment Rate widening to 4.2% from 4.1% in October even as the Labor Force Participation Rate narrowed to 62.5% from 62.6% during the same period.

The update from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that ‘employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance,’ with the report going onto say that ‘employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; wholesale trade; transportation and warehousing; information; financial activities; professional and business services; and other services.’

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EUR/USD Chart – 15 Minute

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

The US Dollar struggled to hold its ground despite the better-than-expected NFP report, with EUR/USD climbing to a fresh daily high of 1.0630 following the release. Nevertheless, the initial reaction was short-lived as EUR/USD closed the day at 1.0568, and the exchange rate continued to depreciate during the second week of December as it ended the week at 1.0503.

Looking ahead, the US is expected to add 154K jobs in December, while the Unemployment Rate is anticipated to hold steady at 4.2% during the same period.

With that said, evidence of a strong labor market may generate a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to pause its rate-cutting cycle, but a weaker-than-expected NFP report may produce headwinds for the Greenback as it fuels speculation for lower US interest rates.

Additional Market Outlooks

USD/JPY Clears December High Ahead of US NFP Report

GBP/USD Recovery Keeps 2024 Range Intact

US Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Approaches November 2023 Low

USD/CAD Pullback Keeps RSI Below Overbought Territory

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong