US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Defends Yearly Low to Keep RSI Above 30
US Dollar Outlook: EUR/USD
EUR/USD appears to be defending the yearly low (1.0333) as it rebounds from a fresh monthly low (1.0343), with the recovery in the exchange rate keeping the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 30.
US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Defends Yearly Low to Keep RSI Above 30
EUR/USD may track the November range as the RSI moves away from oversold territory, and the exchange rate may attempt to retrace the decline following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision amid the limited reaction to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, which showed the core rate of inflation holding steady at 2.8% in November versus forecasts for a 2.9% print.
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
With that said, the failed attempt to test the yearly low (1.0333) may push EUR/USD back towards the monthly high (1.0630), but the exchange rate may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.0644) as it holds below the moving average.
EUR/USD Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
- EUR/USD trades back above 1.0370 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) after failing to test the November low (1.0333), with a move back above the 1.0448 (2023 low) to 1.0480 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone bringing the 1.0580 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) to 1.0610 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) region back on the radar.
- A breach above the monthly high (1.0630) may push EUR/USD towards 1.0660 (61.8% Fibonacci extension), but the exchange rate may struggle to retain the rebound from the monthly low (1.0343) should it track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA (1.0644).
- Need a breach below the November low (1.0333) to open up 1.0200 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.9950 (50% Fibonacci extension).
Additional Market Outlooks
GBP/USD Holds Below Pre-Fed Levels Even as BoE Keeps Bank Rate Steady
US Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Approaches November 2023 Low
USD/CAD Pullback Keeps RSI Below Overbought Territory
Gold Price Forecast: Bullion Remains Below Pre-US Election Prices
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong
StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.
No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.
City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.
The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.
© City Index 2024