The Week Ahead: S&P 500 Uptrend May Come Down to NVDA Earnings

Key Points

• “Risk on” trade remains the dominant theme, with major equity indices hitting record highs as bond yields rise.
• A relatively quiet week for economic data is highlighted by the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday and PMI surveys on Thursday.
• Nvidia’s earnings will be a key hurdle to determine whether the S&P 500 uptrend can continue.

The Week That Was

• The Lunar New Year celebrations in China kept a major player out of the market, leading to lower liquidity conditions than usual.
• The UK saw mixed data, with the labor market proving resilient – especially when it comes to wages – but inflation slowing down. On balance, the data has traders slightly less confident that the BOE will cut interest rates in the first half of the year (~60% discounted per OIS pricing).
• A weak Australian jobs report raised flags of a slowing economy Down Under as elevated mortgage rates may be taking their toll on the economy.
• Meanwhile stateside, inflation came in hotter-than-expected on both a consumer and producer level, though some market analysts are questioning whether the elevated price pressures may be due to a seasonal quirk.
• US retail sales fell sharply in January, prompting some observers to wonder if the US consumer is finally slowing. UK retail sales, on the other hand, were much stronger than anticipated.
• US indices shrugged off both hot inflation readings and weak retail sales to finish the week at or near record highs once again.
• The Australian and US dollars were the strongest major currencies, while “safe havens” like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen struggled amidst risk-on trading.

The Week Ahead – Economic and Earnings Calendar

Looking ahead, it’s looking like a relatively quiet week on the economic calendar, highlighted by the FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday and PMI surveys on Thursday. Meanwhile, Nvidia earnings on Wednesday will be a key test for the bull market in equities (more on that below):

Monday

• US and Canadian Bank Holiday

Tuesday

• RBA Monetary Policy Minutes
• Chinese PBOC Prime Rate Announcement
• Canadian CPI
• Earnings: Walmart, Home Depot, BHP, Palo Alto Networks, Barclays, and Medtronic

Wednesday

• Australian Wage Price Index
• FOMC Meeting Minutes
• Earnings: Nvidia, Rio Tinto

Thursday

• Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
• UK Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
• Canadian Retail Sales
• US Flash Manufacturing and Services PMIs
• US Existing Home Sales
• Earnings: Intuit, Lloyds, Booking Holdings

Friday

• Japanese Bank Holiday
• German IFO Survey

The Week Ahead – Key Events and Themes

Rising risk appetite was the theme of last week’s trade, and the big question on most traders’ radars is whether that relentless rally in risk assets can extend for another week. Despite the ostensible risks of inflation reaccelerating in the US, major indices all made record highs from Germany to the US to Japan, global bond yields rallied across the curve, Bitcoin – a quintessential measure of risk appetite – surged to 2-year highs, and even oil prices were able to rally up to approach their highest levels since November.

Looking ahead, the biggest hurdle for bulls to watch will be Nvidia’s earnings. The semiconductor giant saw its market cap eclipse fellow “Magnificent Seven” rivals Alphabet/Google and Amazon last week, signaling elevated optimism heading into the release.

The epicenter of the AI revolution, Nvidia traders at a massive multiple, but as long as it continues to deliver strong growth, traders will keep bidding it up. In addition to the usual EPS (expected at $4.18) and revenue ($20.4B expected) results, traders will also be hyper-focused on the company’s guidance and outlook for the rest of the year. Following on strong results from rivals like AMD, SMCI, and TSMC, investors’ sky-high expectations will be put to the test with potential for outsized volatility; looking at the implied volatility on NVDA options, we can see that investors are projecting a +/- 11% move in response to earnings, a truly massive figure for a nearly $2T company.

Outside of Nvidia’s earnings, the most important release will likely be the Thursday’s PMI surveys from the US, UK, and Eurozone. Seen as one of the most timely measures of on-the-ground economic activity, these surveys will give traders insight into whether the strong momentum from January has carried over into this month. With traders aggressive pricing out interest rate cuts from all major central banks since the start of the year, it will take another round of strong PMI surveys to prevent near-term bearish reversals.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis – SPX Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview, StoneX

The key chart to watch for the coming week will be the S&P 500. The broad index of large-cap US stocks shrugged off both the hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports, keeping the medium-term bullish channel intact. If Nvidia, which represents nearly a 5% weight in the index in addition to its implications for other high-value names, can deliver on its earnings report, traders may start to target the top of the bullish channel in the 5100 area next. On the other hand, a confirmed break below the bullish channel and 21-day EMA near 4950 would point to a deeper pullback toward the 50-day EMA around 4820 next.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX