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AUD/USD weekly outlook: The Aussie to take its cue from sentiment

I suspect we’ve entered a phase where politically-driven sentiment carries more weight than domestic data for AUD/USD. And with the VIX rising alongside political uncertainty, volatility could favour bears over the coming months as we head towards the US elections.

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US politics, PCE inflation, PMIs, BOC: The Week Ahead

Whether it is Biden stepping aside or Trump grabbing headlines with policy hints, it is difficult to see US politics taking a back seat next week. Fed watchers have the US PCE inflation report to look forward to, and global central bank watchers have flash PMIs. The BOC are expected to cut rates, but will they signal more next week?

Congress building

Which is Actually Transitory: US Inflation, or Powell’s Job?

Jerome Powell is yet to be reconfirmed for a second term as Fed Chair, whilst ‘transitory’ inflation is on a tear. We’re curious to see which one will last the longest.

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European Open: Debt Ceiling to Be Temporarily Lifted to Avoid Default

The US senate passed legislation to temporarily increase the government’s debt limit until December, after they voted 50-48 in favour of kicking the can down the road.

Politics and stocks, an uneasy relationship

Global stock markets have had one key driver over the last 7-months: politics. The election of Donald Trump last November led to one of the quickest thousand point rallies in a US stock index for 80 years. The political effect has spread to Europe, with the election of Emmanuel Macron in France and Mark Rutte in Holland helping European stocks to play catch up. But, are we seeing the downside of political drivers, and could risk assets be in for a rough time in the future?

Trump is still the tail wagging the Fed’s dog

Aside from the torrent of earnings releases (see more below) the European markets on Thursday are likely to digest the Fed minutes from its meeting […]

Trump’s era of isolation fails to set markets alight

Donald Trump has become the 45th President of the United States of America, and the markets reaction, so far, has been fairly muted. But, as […]

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