US

The US economy is anticipated to add 140K jobs in September following the 142K expansion the month prior.

The ISM Services PMI is expected to expand for the third consecutive month in September.

Today’s payroll data reiterated the run of strong labor market data with wages growing at 4% a key concern for the Fed. Futures markets reduced the probability of early rate cuts, but traders made few changes to their bullish stance on equities, bonds, gold or the dollar.

The Dow Jones has quickly shaken off yesterday’s late losses is challenging record highs despite the comedown of the Fed minutes yesterday. The market remains optimistic over the state of the US economy, supported by today’s various jobs sector data releases; the flip-side is that too much strength could slow the pace of interest rate cuts with the Fed “likely at or near its peak rates” according to December policy meeting minutes yesterday. The Bitcoin rally will be tested pretty soon, as the SEC is intended to approve (or not) Bitcoin ETFs.

Oil prices appear to have found support at $70 per barrel, with news of US stock building, further OPEC+ production cuts and Middle East tensions spurring buying action. The Fed’s December meeting minutes were cagey on the outlook for interest rates in 2024. JOLTS labor market data pointed to further weakness, good news for inflation.

Equity, bond, and gold investors are pricing in large rate cuts in 2024, starting in March, but this week’s jobs data could spoil the fun. A bullish December for stocks might have pulled forward the typical January rally, spurred by the belief that the Fed is about to pivot. US Treasuries sold off in morning trade, with worries about the appetite to digest the major volume of new issues. There is some risk of disappointment in the interest rate outlook, notably with commodity prices indicating persistent inflation so there is less chance of a rate-cutting bonanza.

The Russell 2000 was again the strongest US index, continuing a trend evident for two months. Gold prices touched $2,082.5 per ounce this morning, buoyed by a mixture of risk aversion and the anticipation of lower interest rates. This morning’s economic data showed strong durable goods demand and a modest decline in a key inflation gauge, the ‘PCE deflator’, generally supporting rate cuts early next year.

US equity markets bounced back in morning trade, again led by the Russell 2000, after yesterday’s worries about the pace of rate cuts, as traders ignored anything but a rosy rate cutting in 2024. Oil prices slipped, down 1.3%, despite various indications that oil output will be cut next year by Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s top two producers.

Gold continues to glitter thanks to sharply declining bond yields, notably a major downward move in the real rate on 10-year TIPS. Other than for a 2% rally in the Russell 2,000, US equities were unchanged. The dollar lost another 1% today, making a 10% decline from its late 2022 high point.

The Fed’s offer of greater than expected rate cuts next year (if inflation behaves) spurred over one percent rallies in the S&P500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000, after being down 0.5% before the news. Bonds rallied strongly, being up over 4% along the curve. Gold jumped close to 2% and hit a new all-time high. The dollar sold off versus all major cross rates.

Oil prices continued to slide, down 4% on fears of weaker economic growth. Today’s inflation data, combined with last week’s employment data, suggests that inflation remains sticky – despite the benefit of lower energy prices. The “group think” on Wall Street is that the Fed must start pivoting early in 2024, but this has been wrong for the past 20 months. Let’s see if the Fed Chair will convincingly reassert his ‘higher for longer’ message tomorrow.

Bullish factors FOMC's monetary policy decision should curb more optimistic bets on a Fed interest rate cut in the short term and contribute to a momentary dollar strengthening. COPOM is expected to cut the basic interest rate (SELIC) by 0.50 p.p. and indicate that it will maintain the pace of reductions in the next meetings, which should harm the attractiveness of Brazilian bonds and falter the real. November CPI in the US is expected to show a slight hike compared to October and signal that the path to price stability recovery may be a bit longer and more tortuous than anticipated, increasing risk aversion and weakening currencies of emerging countries. Monetary policy decisions in the eurozone and England should reinforce the economic weakness in Europe and contribute to weakening their currencies versus the USD, favoring the American currency by contrast. Bearish factors The possibility of advancing important economic agendas for the government in the National Congress could reduce the perception of fiscal risks for Brazilian assets and strengthen the real.

Equity markets marked time ahead of the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday, with bond yields edging up, the dollar unchanged, oil bouncing off an important support and gold seeing profit-taking.

Gold recently hit an intra-day high in nominal terms but is now unwinding overbought conditions and has slipped below $2,000. The net gain since the start of November is just 1.1%, after a range of 10.5%. Silver’s profits have been wiped out after a range of 17.8%. Now is the time for gold to pause for a breath, with technical factors deteriorating. Silver is still vulnerable to a speculative overhang.

Stocks rallied from early losses this morning as traders weighed this morning's jobs report and positive consumer sentiment data all of which pointed to which pointed to a soft landing. Futures markets pushed out the much hoped-for first rate cut to next summer echoing some Fed official’s mantra of ‘higher rates for longer.’ Predictably, bond yields and the dollar rose, while gold fell back from its peak.

The Yen was very strong versus the dollar, hitting a 3-month high of 151.35 after traders anticipated a rate hike from a comment by Bank of Japan’s Governor Kazuo Ueda. The oil price dipped below $70 per barrel for the first time since June. The Dow Jones barely held on to recent gains in morning trade, with the NASDAQ up 1.4% and the S&P 500 up 0.8%. Fundamental direction has been thin with jobs data mixed thus far, and the official employment report still on tap tomorrow morning.

The oil price slid 4% to $69.4 per barrel on fears that promised OPEC+ production cuts wouldn’t be enough in the face of weaker demand. Gold continues to flirt with all-time highs. Bond yields are moving down to levels seen over the summer, helping to lower mortgage rates and boost activity in the property market. Equity markets marked time ahead of key labor market data.