NFP

Crude Oil Week Ahead: Crude oil retested its 2025 starting point, hovering near the key $72 support zone ahead of the first OPEC meeting of the year, next week's ISM PMI and Non-Farm Payrolls reports, and evolving energy policies under Donald Trump.

The market was already repricing US interest rates higher in recent days and week, amid expectations of inflationary policies under Donald Trump, when he takes office later this month. But the surprising strength of US labour market means traders have now shifted the full pricing of the next Fed rate cut to October.

I doubt we’ll be seeing too much weakness in December’s NFP figures later today, and that could prompt another bid for the USD. But with Trump likely to revive his disdain for a strong dollar, perhaps a pullback is not too far away.

Dow Jones dropped over 2% during the last trading week, falling from the peak of 43,400 recorded in late December 2024.

Leading indicators point to a roughly as-expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 150-200K range

The USD/JPY forecast is subject to change greatly in the coming weeks with US CPI due next week followed by FOMC and BoJ decisions the following week.

The Fed is likely, but not certain, to cut interest rates by 25bps later this month, and a strong NFP report could reopen the door for close decision.

The US Dollar has finally pulled back. But – there’s now a key support level in play and tomorrow’s NFP report can be a major market mover, as it’s an early look at October activity in the world’s largest economy.

Like it or hate it, there is clearly demand for the USD index around 100. And should NFP and ISMs outperform against next week, it might spark a dollar rebound.

The leading indicators point to an as expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 130K-200K range

Leading indicators point to a below expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 125K-175K range.

Crude Oil Forecast: Oil’s track to 74 was halted by positive US GDP and declining inventories. What’s next for FOMC and NFP Week?

Crude Oil, EURUSD Forecast: Oil hovers at the upper edge of its consolidation, while EURUSD surges towards it.

If we look at data over the last couple of weeks, it is hard to argue that the US economy is not slowing. And that raised expectations for a weak NFP report with good merit. Still, it should be remembered that NFP change has a tendency to beat expectations, and the data suggests it has a strong directional bias for the USD on the day.

A softer-than-expected ISM services report was the gift that Fed doves have been waiting for ahead of tomorrow's NFP report. The USD index is now on track for a 3-week reversal pattern below resistance, and AUD/USD has broken out in style.

EUR/USD is rallying toward the key 1.0800 level that could set the tone for the rest of the month ahead of the NFP report.

It's possible we'll know who won the first round of France's election by the time markets open in Asia next week, which means the euro and European index futures could be more active than usual. Traders should then look to the pound and FTSE for pre-election jitters, although once again it could be Asian markets that get to witness the results. Despite the public holiday on Thursday, the US economic calendar is also packed. Two key ISM reports for manufacturing and services land before July 4th, alongside JOLTS and ADP employment reports, which are the warm-up acts for NFP on Friday.