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AUD/USD, US dollar, Swiss franc analysis: COT report – Feb 26, 2024
Traders remained net-long US dollar index futures last week, although asset managers have the more convincing bullish view for the dollar.
Are SNB being ‘franc’ about a potential hike?
Comments from SNB’s president suggest the central bank might be closer to hiking rates sooner than some expect.
Weekly COT Report: Bulls Have All but Abandoned the Swiss Franc
The long / short ratio of bulls to bears on the Swiss franc hit a record low last week, which suggests we may be approaching a sentiment extreme for bearish positioning.
European Open: The Swissy Probes June’s High, UK Retail Sales Up Next
The Swissy (USD/CHF) enjoyed its most bullish day in 3-month yesterday, and just the June high stands in its way of an extended run (if consumer sentiment allows).
European Open: Is The Sell-Off Losing Steam or Just Pausing For Breath?
Whilst risk assets remained under pressure, there are signs that the risk-off tone has softened as bearish volatility remains on the low side.
Asian Open: Traders Are the Most Bullish on DXY in a Year
The dollar’s rally leading into June’s Nonfarm payroll report saw large speculators push net-long exposure to on DXY to its highest level since June 2020.
Asian Open: Volatility Shakes Markets and Sends CHF and JPY Soaring
The risk-off sentiment which began in Asia yesterday gathered momentum overnight, which saw bond yields, equities and commodity currencies fell in tandem.
DXY isn’t a currency pair, but USD/CHF is!
If traders would like to trade DXY, USD/CHF may be a good substitute
European Open: Mild Optimism Ahead of Core PCE, GBP/CHF Back Within Range
US inflation data is the main data point in today’s calendar, but there was a mild risk-on tone across equity and FX markets thanks to US infrastructure bill.
European Open: Euro Pairs Consolidate Ahead of Key Data Points
German industrial production kids the day off at 07:00 BST, ahead of the ZEW sentiment report and final GDP and employment reads for the eurozone at 10:00.
European Open: Japan’s Exports Rise to 11yr High, Futures Point to Firmer Open
Whilst Japan’s rising exports are good for domestic growth (after GDP contracted in Q1) it also points to increased global demand.
European Open: Bullish Candles Form on European Indices
Asian equities were mostly higher overnight thanks to a positive lead from Wall Street, after Fed members calmed market nerves of rising inflation, helping equities to snap a three-day losing streak.
Is USD/CHF trying to tell us something about DXY?
If the 2 assets are truly, positively correlated, one may expect that the DXY will bounce soon
Swiss National Bank preview: A trillion-franc quandary
The SNB spent a staggering CHF 110B on intervention to stem the appreciation of the Swiss franc in the FX market last year
USD/CHF and DXY mending their broken relationship
If the strong correlation between USD/CHF and DXY deteriorates again, it may be a warning that something bigger is brewing.
USD/CHF and DXY diverge
If one is looking for a proxy to trade the DXY, USD/CHF is probably not the best choice right now.
So you want to trade the DXY?: EUR/USD, USD/CHF
DXY is a measure of the value of the US Dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies
GBP/USD stronger and USD/CHF weaker
Here is a look at some of the largest movers of the week: Chart
USD/CHF breaks below key consolidation zone: What's next?
Pair remains under pressure after breaking 0.898 support.
USDCHF posts a strong week
The pair remains in a consolidation despite this week's bullish performance.
Cable reigns supreme
GBP/USD posts largest pip gain of the week against its major pairs: Charts
USDCHF Breakout
Major reversal in play: Chart
Waiting on a CHF breakout
USDCHF pair remains in holding pattern, but for how much longer?