Australia

Trump's tariffs and divergent monetary-policy expectations between the RBA and Fed are weighing on AUD/USD. But whether it can hold above the January low could come down to whether USD/CNH breaks above its 2022 high.

Well, Trump's tariffs are not going away. In fact, they're on Canada's doorstep. And that was enough to send USD/CAD to a 5-year high late in the day on Thursday, which only adds to the excitement of month end flows and messy price action.

The ASX 200 index is eyeing a record high. But with SPI 200 futures dragging its heels below resistance looms and the Fed unlikely to cut soon, an immediate breakout is not on my horizon. Even though an eventual breakout seems inevitable.

Today's quarterly inflation figures for Australia could be the difference between the RBA cutting rates or standing pat at their next meeting. And with market pricing a cut in, we need a soft trimmed-mean to avoid short-covering rebound on AUD/USD.

Wednesday’s inflation figures are the standout event for RBA watchers, as it could decide whether the RBA pull the trigger and cut rates in February. But if they fail to confirm the dovish excitement generated from the monthly report, AUD/USD runs the risk of a short-covering rally.

The correlations between AUD/USD, the yuan and USD remain in play. But with the latter two stalling at important resistance levels, perhaps AUD/USD could achieve a bounce.

Another strong NFP report sent AUD/USD to a 4-year low on Friday, which was already under pressure following renewed bets of RBA cuts thanks to a soft CPI print for Australia. AU jobs and US CPI are the key data points for Aussie traders this week.

Bond yields and AUD/USD had a different take on today's inflation figures. And on this occasion, I believe forex traders are in the right. And if the Aussie can withstand the strength of the US dollar, it could bode well for bears seeking a cheeky EUR/AUD short.

AUD/USD snapped a 5-week losing streak with a marginal 0.3% gain. But it was the most volatile week since April thanks to the US election, and volatility is expected to remain elevated.

Election week is finally upon us, and could even supersede the FOMC meeting given its implications for global trade depending on who wins the race to the Whitehouse. And that puts AUD/USD in the crosshairs of volatility.

The selloff on AUD/USD extended into its fourth week, and closed beneath the 200-day average on Friday. The Aussie shows the potential to fall for a fifth week, should Trump continue to gain traction in election polls and US data outperforms.

AUD/USD may have finished lower for the third week, but another bumper employment report and reduced bets of easing shook some Aussie bears out of their positions around the 200-day SMA on Thursday and Friday.

We could be in for some choppy trade for AUD/USD this week given the lack of top-tier data from the US and Australia, and the fact we've already seen a decent mover lower on the pair. Unless Australia's employment figures deliver a curveball.

The USD is surging and markets are betting that the RNZZ could cut rates by 100bp by December. Failure to do hint at such a move could see AUD/NZD track AUD/USD lower.

Soft US inflation data saw AUD/USD reach a 19-month high of 0.6930 and mark its first weekly close above 69c since February 2023.

AUD/USD is hinting at a breakout ahead of the weekend. But whether it can hold on to any breakout gains (should they arrive) may be down to next week's RBA meeting and US inflation report.

AUD/USD snapped a 2-week losing streak and was up against all FX majors, except the Japanese yen. The bias remains to seek dips tis week.