Australia

Of the several central bank meetings lined up this week, it is the FOMC meeting which is the most likely to directly impact AUD/USD. And anything short of a dovish surprise could see the Aussie continue lower through 63c.

AUD/USD finds itself at a 13-month low after suffering its worst week in 19. Strong US data has propelled the USD higher while the Aussie also continues to track the Chinese yuan lower. A break of a key trendline from the 2022 low seems probable.

Weak GDP figures saw interest rates traders fully price in three 25bp RBA cuts by Feb 2026. And AUD/USD could have traded much lower on Wednesday, were it not for a stronger yuan coming to the Aussies rescue later in the day.

AUD/USD has done a poor job of tracking its seasonality overall this year so far. And given it’s taking its directional cue from China while any pullback on the USD may be limited, I'm not hanging my hat on a particularly strong December for AUD/USD.

AUD/USD managed to recoup some of its post-US-election losses last week. And given it held up against the might USD strength while futures data shows volumes rising for the first week in seven, I suspect an important swing low has been seen.

With Australia’s business and consumer sentiment rising, CPI ‘too high’ for the RBA and now Trump preparing his cabinet for inflationary policies and potential trade wars, the RBA could be closer to a hike than a cut. And another bumper employment report from Australia this week could strengthen those odds.

AUD/USD snapped a 5-week losing streak with a marginal 0.3% gain. But it was the most volatile week since April thanks to the US election, and volatility is expected to remain elevated.

Election week is finally upon us, and could even supersede the FOMC meeting given its implications for global trade depending on who wins the race to the Whitehouse. And that puts AUD/USD in the crosshairs of volatility.

AUD/USD snapped a 2-week losing streak and was up against all FX majors, except the Japanese yen. The bias remains to seek dips tis week.

Appetite for risk (or lack thereof) remained a key driver for AUD/USD last week, sending the pair lower for a second week and earning its spot as the weakest currency of the week.

August was the strongest month of the year for AUD/USD, yet it also just snapped a 3-week winning streak below resistance, and shows the potential to retrace further from here before its bullish trend is anticipated to resume.

AUD/USD is teasing bulls with a break of key resistance ahead of today's AU inflation figures.

A dovish Powell at Jackson hole sealed the deal for risk to rally and help AUD/USD notch up a third bullish week. Attention now turns to inflation data from the US and Australia.

The late-week recovery which saw AUD/USD break a 3-week losing streak was impressive, given the 170-pip plunge we were treated to last Monday. We're now looking for dips and a break above its 200-day average.

Two RBA speeches and a monetary policy decision along with updated RBA forecasts are the highlights of the week for AUD/USD traders on the domestic front. Although risk-off tones and an ISM services report could prove to be the bigger drivers.

AUD/USD may have snapped a 9-day losing streak, but it is on track for a bearish outside month. Which tend to be followed by further bearish months, looking at recent history.

I suspect we’ve entered a phase where politically-driven sentiment carries more weight than domestic data for AUD/USD. And with the VIX rising alongside political uncertainty, volatility could favour bears over the coming months as we head towards the US elections.