S&P500 is the short squeeze over already?
Despite data from China today that showed the Omicron outbreak appears under control and that Chinese economic data may have bottomed, it's been a disappointing day for U.S equity futures, giving back all of yesterday's gains and more.
Behind today's sell-off, events over the past 24 hours have combined to dent hopes that peak inflation and peak Federal Reserve hawkishness might be in the rear vision mirror.
The events have included a red-hot German inflation print and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who stated, "In particular, I am not taking 50 basis-point hikes off the table until I see inflation coming down closer to our 2% target."
Throwing fuel on a smouldering bond market bonfire, the price of crude oil has rallied above $119 per barrel, its highest level in almost three months following the EU agreeing to ban Russian seaborne oil imports just as the driving season in the U.S kicks off and a broader re-opening commences in China.
While these events have provided a setback or a speedbump to our view that a short-covering rally towards 4300 is underway, we don't see them as being the catalyst for a sustained reversal lower. Short-covering rallies don't usually end until the crowd gives up on the bearish view and turns bullish.
Turning to the charts. As viewed on the 60-minute chart below, the rally from the 3807.5 low appears to be missing another leg higher above the overnight 4202.25 high towards 4250/4300.
Providing the current pullback holds support near 4100 we continue to call for higher prices before the current short-covering rally has run its course.
Source Tradingview. The figures stated are as of May 31st of May 2022. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation
How to trade with City Index
You can trade with City Index by following these four easy steps:
-
Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer
• Open an account in the UK
• Open an account in Australia
• Open an account in Singapore
- Search for the company you want to trade in our award-winning platform
- Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
- Place the trade
StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.
No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.
For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.
City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.
City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.
The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.
© City Index 2024