CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖

S&P500 Forecast: SPX rises after in line inflation & Apple earnings

Article By: ,  Senior Market Analyst
Today 2:18 PM

US futures

Dow future 0.28% at 45004

S&P futures 0.44% at 6097

Nasdaq futures 0.77% at 21663

In Europe

FTSE 0.43% at 8687

Dax  0.29% at 21793

  • US core PCE rose 0.2% MoM as expected
  • Trump warns of trade tariffs on Canada,
  • Apple rises after beating earnings & revenue forecasts
  • Oil falls across the week

Core PCE rises 0.2% MoM, 2.8% YoY

US stock markets are heading higher after the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation brought no nasty surprises and remained muted in December, supporting further reductions in interest rates.

The core PCE index rose 0.2% from November and 2.8% year on year. On a 3-month annualised basis, which is considered a more accurate picture, the core PCE gauged rose 2.2%, marking the smallest increase since July.

The data could help ease concerns about a revival in inflation after a period of acceleration in recent months.

The data comes after the US GDP was weaker than expected and following the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, in which Fed chair Jerome Powell said he needed to see more progress towards the 2% target before resuming rate cuts.

Elsewhere, the markets are taking Trump's trade tariffs in stride after threats that they could be applied as of tomorrow. Yesterday, President Trump said the US would impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada on February 1. He also warned that 10% trade tariffs could be added to China this weekend.

Despite this week's volatility, all three major indices are on track for monthly gains S&P 500 less than 1% away from its all-time high reached last week.

Corporate news

Apple has jumped 4% after a rise in service revenue overshadows weaker iPhone sales figures. Apple posted EPS of $2.40 ahead of the $2.35 estimated and revenue of $124.30 billion versus the $124.12 billion forecast. iPhone revenue was slightly below target at $69.14 billion, and services revenue was ahead of expectations at $26.34 billion. Apple said it expected growth in the March quarter of low to mid-single digits on an annual basis, surprising expectation and pointing to some momentum in demand.

Exxon Mobil is set to open modestly higher after the oil giant beat estimates for Q4 profits. Higher oil and gas production offset lower prices and weaker refining margins.

Chevron is set to open over 1.5% lower after the oil major posted weaker-than-expected Q4 income owing to softer US fuel demand and weaker margins.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P 500 is extending its recovery from Monday's low of 5915, pushing towards the record high of 6130 for each last week. The RSI above 50 and the price maintaining above the 50SMA keeps buyers optimistic about further gains. A rise above 6130 brings 6150 and 6200 into focus. The 50SMA offered support at 6000, also the psychological level, and below here, 59 15 comes into play.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD falls

USD is rising and on track to gain 0.7% across the week, recovering from two weeks of declines. The dollar is supported by safe-haven flows following Trump's tariff announcements and the Federal Reserve's more hawkish stance at its policy meeting this week.

EUR/USD is falling after German inflation cooled more than expected, at -0.2% month-over-month in December, down from 0.5% in November. German retail sales also declined by -1.6% month-over-month in December. Data released yesterday indicated that the German economy contracted by 0.2% in the final quarter of last year. This data supports the view that the ECB will continue to cut rates in 2025.

USD/CAD hovers near a multi-year high after rising 0.9% this week. The loonie is under pressure due to expectations that Trump will impose trade tariffs on Canadian imports starting tomorrow.

Oil falls across the week

Oil prices are holding around $73 a barrel but are set to book declines of over 2% for the week after falling 4% in the previous week.

Oil prices are under pressure as Donald Trump is poised to follow through on his threat to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada this weekend. These two countries are the largest crude oil exporters to the U.S., but it remains unclear if crude oil will be included in the tariffs.

Looking ahead, attention will also turn to the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for February 3rd, where the group will discuss Trump's plans to increase U.S. oil production and his demands on OPEC+ to increase output.

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

© City Index 2025