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S&P 500 Forecast: SPX inches lower ahead of Trump's WEF speech

Article By: ,  Senior Market Analyst
Today 2:52 PM

US futures

Dow future 0.09% at 44178

S&P futures -0.11% at 6077

Nasdaq futures -0.5% at 21738

In Europe

FTSE 0.11% at 8557

Dax 0.36% at 21303

  • Trump will speak shortly at the World Economic Forum
  • Investors await more clarity from Trump
  • S&P 500 hovers around record highs
  • Oil is unchanged after recent losses

Investors await more clues from Trump

U.S. stocks are trading mixed, with the S&P 500 hovering around all-time highs in a cautious mood ahead of Trump's speech later today. Corporate earnings and economic data will also be in focus.

The more cautious move comes after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones logged their sixth straight session of gains out of seven on Wednesday. The S&P 500 reached a fresh record high for the first time in over a month, boosted by the tech sector after Trump announced a $500 billion investment in AI infrastructure.

Trump is due to speak at the World Economic Forum in Davis at 11:00 AM ET, and investors will be watching closely for any further clues about potential tariffs, policies, and international taxes.

While Trump has refrained from universal tariffs, he has mentioned potential tariffs on Canada, Mexico, Europe, and China, although nothing concrete has been announced so far. The markets could continue to tread water until Trump further clarifies his positions.

Separately data showed that jobless claims were once again higher than expected at 223K up from 217K in the previous week. This was ahead of expectations of 220K. This is the second straight week that jobless claims have risen by more than forecast, hinting to some softening in the ojbs market, at least near term.

Corporate news

Apple and Alphabet will be in focus after Britain's competition watchdog announced it's launched a double investigation into the so-called mobile ecosystems of the tech industry to see if they've violated competition rules.

American Airlines has slumped 10% after Q1 earnings fell short of expectations, forecasting loss per share of $0.20 to $0.40 in the first three months of 2025. This is a stark contrast to its more upbeat the more out be outlook from its rivals.

S&P 500 forecast – technical analysis.

The S&P 500 extended its recovery from the 5770 low, rising above the 50 SMA and 6050 resistance zone to test 6100 resistance. Buyers, supported by momentum, will look to rise above this level to fresh record highs. Support can be seen at the 6050 zone and 5975 at the 50 SMA. A break below here exposes the 100 SMA at 5860 and the support zone.

FX markets – USD rises, EUR/USD is flat

The USD is rising for a second day, tracking treasury yields northwards and boosted by the uncertainty and caution surrounding Trump's trade policies.

EUR/USD is holding steady at 1.04 as it struggles to gain traction after President Trump's tariff threats and on expectations of a dovish ECB outlook. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points next week. Another reason that traders are sitting on the side-lines is ahead of the eurozone flash PMI is for January tomorrow. Another set of weak readings could encourage the ECB to commit to a more dovish stance on rate cuts.

GBP/USD is holding steady around the 1.23 level amid a lack of fresh UK data and as investors wait for further clues over U.S. trade policies. The focus will also shift to the Bank of England manager policy decision on February 6th, where a 25 basis point cut is fully priced in.

Oil steadies, awaiting more clues

Oil prices are unchanged after four straight days of losses amid ongoing uncertainty over how U.S. President Trump's proposed tariffs and energy policies could impact economic growth and energy demand.

On the one hand, President Trump's pro-drilling policies could increase supply, while trade tariffs could slow global growth, hurting the demand outlook and pulling oil prices lower.

However, Trump has also threatened sanctions against Russia if there is no deal to end the war in Ukraine, which could stem supply further, lifting oil higher

The outlook for oil is biased towards the negative until there's more clarity on Trump's trade tariffs and potentially higher oil supplies.

Inventory data showed that crude stockpiles rose by 958k barrels in the week ending January 17th, according to the API. EIA data will be released shortly.

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