CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖

Oil Slips to $70, Gold Struggles to Confirm $3000

Article By: ,  Market Analyst
Today 8:13 AM

Key Events to Watch:

  • Trump signals a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal, easing oil hedging risks.
  • U.S. Core CPI hits a 10-month high, while CPI m/m and y/y reach 17-month and 7-month highs, respectively.
  • Fed signals no rush for rate cuts, weighing on oil, while gold rises on economic uncertainty.
  • OPEC maintains oil demand forecasts for 2025 and 2026, unchanged from previous assessments.

Trump Pushes for a Peace Deal

Oil is aligning with its broader downtrend as 2025 progresses, with short-lived upside risks fading. Reports of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal have eased energy disruption fears, though uncertainty remains over Middle Eastern tensions.

Gold Exhausts Bullish Momentum

Although a Russia-Ukraine peace deal may emerge after a three-year conflict, the Middle East crisis between Israel and Gaza remains unresolved. Trump's proposal to assume control over Gaza and involve neighboring countries like Jordan and Egypt in resettling Palestinians has been met with firm rejection.

Jordan’s King Abdullah reiterated on X: "This is the unified Arab position. Rebuilding Gaza without displacing the Palestinians." Trump’s controversial stance has increased geopolitical uncertainty, further supporting gold’s safe-haven appeal amid rising inflation, trade war risks, and currency depreciation concerns.

Fed Seeks Inflation Confirmation Through PCE Data

Following the Fed’s decision to delay rate cuts, U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, prompting the Fed to focus on additional inflation metrics, particularly U.S. PCE, before making further policy decisions:

  • Core CPI surged to 10-month highs (0.4% from 0.2%)
  • CPI m/m hit a 17-month peak (0.5% from 0.4%)
  • CPI y/y reached a 7-month high, touching the 3% mark

Despite Trump’s pressure on the Fed to cut rates, oil markets are pricing in a slower demand outlook, sending prices back to key support at $70, near a four-year price average. 

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

Oil Forecast: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Following a bullish engulfing pattern, oil’s upside momentum was short-lived, as prices fell back toward the $70 zone with Russia-Ukraine supply risks fading.

  • Key support: $70–$69.50, with further downside at $66, $64, and $60 if overproduction risks and economic slowdowns persist.
  • Final bearish forecast below 60: $55 and $49 • Upside breakout: A move above short-term resistance at $76 and a decisive close above $78, breaking the two-year downtrend, could pave the way for rallies towards $82, $86, and $90

Gold Forecast: 3-Day Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

Gold’s recent $2,940 high remains un-sustained, with RSI nearing overbought levels last seen in November 2024, where Gold retreated nearly 100-points, keeping bearish forecasts intact.

  • Key support levels: $2,820 and $2,790, with a deeper drop toward $2,730 if bearish momentum strengthens
  • Upside scenario: A breakout above $2,940 is required to confirm a bullish extension toward $3,000 and $3,050
  • Short-term outlook: Despite a brief pullback after CPI data, investors continue to flock to gold as a hedge against inflation and trade war risks

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

You Tube: Commodities and Forex Trading with Razan Hilal

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

© City Index 2025