Nasdaq 100 forecast: Amazon results take centre stage after mixed Alphabet and AMD earnings

In the first half of Thursday’s session, European equities rallied, and US index futures traded mostly higher as investors tackled the busiest day of earnings season. Treasury yields remained near recent lows, bolstering risk sentiment in the absence of new geopolitical trade tensions. In Europe, the Stoxx 500, DAX, and FTSE reached fresh record highs, driven by strong corporate earnings, a surprisingly positive German Factory Orders report, and growing expectations of further interest rate cuts in the coming months. UK stocks outperformed as the pound weakened following a disappointing construction PMI reading, and after the Bank of England cut rates and halved its growth forecasts. However, US indices and futures have yet to hit new all-time highs, potentially signalling fading bullish momentum for US stocks ahead of more tech earnings today. That said, the Nasdaq 100 forecast still bullish given an overall positive technical backdrop.

 

Wall Street closed higher yesterday, supported in part by President Donald Trump’s decision to delay tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While this move was interpreted as a sign of flexibility in his broader trade strategy, uncertainty remains over a potential deal with China’s Xi Jinping. The 10% tariff threat is still in place, and Trump’s comments suggest he is in no hurry to resume negotiations. Despite recent earnings disappointments from Alphabet, AMD, and Qualcomm, markets have largely brushed off these misses. However, if more companies begin reporting weaker-than-expected earnings, a market pullback could follow.

 

 

Volatility Eases as Economic Indicators Regain Focus

 

Following recent market turbulence driven by US trade policies, conditions are stabilizing as investors shift their focus to economic data, corporate earnings, and interest rate outlooks. The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near its lowest level since mid-December after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed his commitment to reducing long-term borrowing costs. Lower bond yields, along with solid earnings growth, continue to provide a supportive environment for equities. However, uncertainty lingers, particularly due to Trump’s unpredictable protectionist remarks, which have the potential to disrupt sentiment suddenly.

 

Earnings Spotlight: Amazon, Qualcomm, and Alphabet

 

Investor attention is now turning to Amazon, which is set to release its quarterly earnings report after the bell. Market participants are closely watching the company’s artificial intelligence spending plans, especially following the emergence of a cost-effective AI model from Chinese start-up DeepSeek, which has sparked fresh competitive concerns.

 

Meanwhile, Qualcomm posted stronger-than-expected first-quarter results, benefiting from a resurgence in smartphone demand driven by AI. However, the chipmaker warned of a slowdown in sales growth within its key patent licensing business after its agreement with Huawei expired. This announcement led to a decline in Qualcomm’s stock during extended trading.

 

Alphabet’s shares also took a hit after missing revenue expectations, with investors particularly troubled by the slowdown in cloud revenue growth from 35% to 30% last quarter. Additionally, Alphabet’s ambitious $75 billion capital expenditure plan for 2025—far exceeding the projected $58 billion—has raised concerns about excessive AI investments. The latest developments from DeepSeek have only added to these worries.

 

AMD faced similar struggles, with its stock slipping after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 revenues, casting doubt on near-term growth prospects within the semiconductor industry.

 

US Jobs Data to Influence Fed Rate Expectations

 

Beyond corporate earnings, investors are preparing for key macroeconomic data releases. Today’s initial jobless claims report will be released shortly, and will come ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payroll figures. Forecasts suggest a slowdown in NFP additions to 154,000 in January, down from 256,000 in December, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%.

 

Any signs of weakness in the labour market could reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, potentially offering further support to equities. As investors weigh earnings reports alongside economic data, the question remains: does the rally in risk assets have more room to run?

 

Technical Nasdaq 100 Forecast: Key Levels to Watch

 

Source: TradingView.com

 

Despite recent gains, the Nasdaq 100 forecast is still bullish from a technical standpoint. The index remains within a broad consolidation pattern established since December. The lack of a breakout to fresh all-time highs, despite positive momentum in select market sectors, does raise some concerns about the index’s sustainability. With some major tech stocks underperforming, all it takes is a significant downturn in Nvidia stock to trigger panic in the sector. Investors should approach with caution while weighing market risks.

 

Looking at key levels, the 21,700 to 21865 zone marks the next significant resistance for Nasdaq 100. This area has recently acted as a strong resistance point, and unless we see robust earnings across the sector, concerns over AI investment spending could hinder further gains. Additionally, a short-term bearish trend converges in this region, reinforcing resistance.

 

On the downside, short-term support is found near 21,580, followed by another one at 21,466. However, even if the index pulls back below these levels, the broader bullish trend will remain intact unless a decisive break below long-term support in the 20,530–20,760 region occurs. In other words, while short-term fluctuations may arise, a deeper bearish shift would require a more significant technical breakdown.

 

 

 

 

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

 

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