Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bull Pennant Breakout to Fresh ATH
Gold, XAU/USD Talking Points:
- Spot gold prices hit a fresh all-time-high this week, following a breakout on the back of the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
- XAU/USD tested above the $2800 psychological level but wasn’t able to hold above that into the end of the week, likely driven by profit taking ahead of the weekend.
- The monthly bar for gold also finishes on Friday and this has been a very bullish outlay following two months of pullback, and this retains bullish potential for fresh all-time-highs as we move into February.
It was a banner year of 2024 for gold with the metal at one point showing a 40% rally, from the February lows to the October highs.
But the final two months of 2024 were a change of pace, as sellers retained control through both the November bar which brought the U.S. election and the December outlay which was largely pushed by the sell-off around FOMC.
January, however, shows buyers getting back in the driver’s seat to push a fresh all-time-high, testing above the $2,800 level.
Gold Monthly Chart
Bull Pennant Resolution
The pullback in gold was somewhat orderly, as it arrived in the form of a symmetrical triangle and when combined with the prior bullish trend, made for a bull pennant formation. This began to resolve just after the 2025 open and bulls have now pushed a fifth consecutive weekly gain, following a support test at the $2600 level and leading to the current test of the $2800 handle.
Gold Weekly Price Chart
Gold FOMC Reactions
It was the December FOMC rate decision that last delivered a punch to gold bulls, and I’ve highlighted that below with the light vertical line in the middle of the chart. But the swing low produced by that is what helped to produce the support side of the triangle, and it’s also from where buyers started to push a pattern of higher-lows and higher-highs that remains in-play today, with the test of the $2800 handle that has helped to define the ATH that traded last week.
Gold Daily Chart
Gold Shorter-Term, Strategy
The bullish trend has been on a brisk pace of late, and this week saw a support test at 2750 which was confluent with a bullish trendline before bulls were able to push to that fresh high. That’s the spot that buyers now have to defend to retain control of the short-term trend and if sellers can push below last week’s low of 2730, a deeper retracement scenario would begin to look more attractive.
Ideally for bulls, however, support will hold above that 2750 spot and there’s two prices in particular that remain of interest for that, plotted at the prior high of 2786 and then a batch of prior resistance at 2766.
Gold Four-Hour Price Chart
--- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
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