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EUR/USD, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

Article By: ,  Senior Market Analyst
Yesterday 9:46 AM

EUR/USD rises but the outlook remains weak

  • France's government is on the brink of collapse
  • US JOLTS job openings are due
  • EUR/USD recovers from 1.0460 support

EUR/USD is inching higher after steep losses in the previous session. The market is waiting cautiously for further developments in France and looks ahead to a big week for U.S. economic data.

PM Michel Barnier’s coalition government is on the brink of collapse, and he's expected to face a vote of no confidence tomorrow, which he is unlikely to win. This could lead to further political uncertainty in the eurozone's second-largest economy.

Political instability runs alongside a weak economic outlook. Yesterday's PMI data showed that the region’s manufacturing sector recession continues and shows no sign of letting up.

Adding Trump's threat of trade tariffs when he takes office in January to the mix, it's hard to be anything but bearish towards the Euro.

EUR/USD parity wasn't even a topic for conversation a few months ago. Now, it looks like a possibility in 2025

Separately, the US dollar is easing lower, giving back some of yesterday's gains. The US dollar typically suffers seasonal weakness in December. However, following Donald Trump's indication of support for a stronger dollar, that might not necessarily be the case this year.

Over the weekend, trump threatened tariffs, on BRIC members that weren’t committed to the USD as a reserve currency.

Attention today now turns to jolts job openings, which are expected to hold steady at 7.44 million.

The data comes ahead of a busy week for U.S. economic figures, including ADP payrolls, ISM services PMI, and Friday's non-farm payroll report.

Strong data could see the market rein in fed rate cut expectations fella.

EUR/USD forecast – technical analysis

After running into resistance at 1.06, EUR/USD rebounded lower but found support at 1.0460, the 2023 low. The price trades caught between these levels. The RSI is below 50 and the 50 SMA crossed below the 200 SMA in a bearish signal.

Sellers will look to extend the 2-month bearish trend by taking out support at 1.0460 to brig 1.04 into focus ahead of 1.0330, the 2024 low.

Any recovery would need to rise above 1.06 to negate the trend and create a higher high. Above here, 1.07 comes into play.

Oil rises ahead of inventory data & OPEC’s meeting later in the week

  • OPEC+ is expected to postpone the unwinding of production cut
  • Chinese data helped the demand outlook
  • Oil trades in a familiar range

Oil prices are rising in the European session but continued to trade in a narrow range ahead of the OPEC class policy meeting on Thursday.

The market is expecting the group of oil producers to delay its planned unwinding of production cuts beyond January 2025 in the hope of rebalancing the market and protecting prices. The outlook for supply surplus has put pressure on prices, meaning there is little option but to defer.

 Yesterday, Chinese factory activity expanded, raising hopes that the oil demand outlook is improving as the recent stimulus measures seep through the economy. However, optimism over data from China is being offset by questions over the outlook for Fed rate cuts in the coming months.

Geopolitical tensions remain in focus in the Middle East after the US-brokered ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah appears to be on shaky ground.

Attention now turns to US crude stockpiles which are expected to have fallen last week while gasoline and distillate inventories are forecast to have risen. API data is due today, and EIA inventory data will be released on Wednesday.

Oil forecast – technical analysis

Oil continues to trade within a familiar range that it has traded within since September. The price is capped on the upside by 71.50 -72.50 and around 67 -67.50 on the downside. The RSI is neutral.

Sellers will want to wait from a break below 67.00 to enter a sell position, bringing 65.50, the 2024 low, into focus ahead of 63.50, the October 2023 low.

Should buyers rise above 72.50, bulls will look to 75.00 round number and 76.60 the 200 SMA.

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