Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Breakout Looms

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels

• Euro rebounds off downtrend support- now trading into yearly-open resistance (unchanged for 2025)
• EUR/USD range breakout pending with bears vulnerable while above the monthly low
• Resistance 1.05, 1.0573/87 (key), 1.0718/77- Support 1.02 (key), Parity, 9735

Euro is attempting to snap a two-week losing streak with EUR/USD trading into yearly-open resistance today. A rebound off downtrend support keeps the focus on a breakout of the January range for guidance with the bears still vulnerable while above the 1.02-handle. Battle lines drawn on the Euro weekly technical chart.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD had, “rebounded off yearly trend support with a breakout of the monthly opening-range threatening a larger recovery here. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch towards 1.0573/87 IF reached– losses would need to be limited to 1.0352 for the monthly breakout to remain viable with a close above the median-line needed to fuel the next leg of the advance.”

Euro registered an intraweek high at 1.0533 the following week before exhausting with EUR/USD covering nearly the entire 2025 range over the past two-weeks. A defense of key support last week keeps the focus on a breakout of January range for guidance.

Support remains with the lower parallel / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 advance at 1.02. A break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten a test of critical, longer-term slope support at parity- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent support seen at the 2022 low-week close (LWC) at 9735.

Initial weekly resistance is eyed near the 1.05-handle and is backed by the 38.2% retracement of the 2024 decline / 2023 LWC at 1.0573/87. A breach / weekly close above this threshold would suggest a more significant low was registered last month / a larger reversal is underway. Critical resistance/ broader bearish invalidation now set to 1.0719/77- a region defined by the November high-week close (HWC), the 52-week moving average and the February LWC (area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached).

Bottom line: EUR/USD remains in a well-defined range just above downtrend support with price virtually unchanged now in 2025. The focus is on a breakout of the 1.02-1.05 range for guidance here with bears vulnerable while above slope support. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited o 1.0573 IF price is heading for a break lower here with a close below 1.02 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex