CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖

Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA rises with Trump & Fed Powell in focus

Article By: ,  Senior Market Analyst
July 15, 2024 2:39 PM

US futures

Dow future 0.47% at 40,200

S&P futures 0.37% at 5637

Nasdaq futures 0.40% at 20427

In Europe

FTSE -0.4% at 8219

Dax -0.61% at 18657

  • Odds of Trump winning the election rise
  • The market considers a Trump win bullish
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks later
  • Oil falls after weaker China data

Trump’s odds of an election win increase

U.S. stocks point to a higher start as traders assess the implications of an assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump and ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell later today.

Following the assassination attempt on Trump, expectations have risen that Trump would win the US elections. Online betting site PredictIt showed that the chances of a Trump win rose to 67%, up from Friday's 60% while Joe Biden was at 28%

Under Trump, markets are expected to benefit from a hawkish trade policy and looser regulation, particularly over climate change and cryptocurrency issues. As a result, the market considers Trump as President an optimistic scenario, which explains the move higher.

Today’s gains come after a strong rally that has seen all three major US indexes reach record highs in recent sessions.

Attention will now turn to Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, who is due to speak. His comments come after US inflation cooled more than expected in June and as the market prices in 93% probability over 25 basis point rate count by September. A dovish-sounding Powell could help boost stocks.

The US earnings season ramps up this week, with mega caps in focus. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Netflix, and TSMC are among those expected to report.

Corporate news

Goldman Sachs is falling despite better-than-expected Q2 results. The banking giant posted an EPS of $8.62 versus the $8.34 forecast for revenue of $12.73 billion versus the $12.46 billion estimated. This marks a 150% jump in profits compared to the same period last year. Revenue rose 17% thanks to growth in the bank’s core trading, advisory, asset, and wealth management operations.

Asset manager BlackRock is set to rise after impressive Q2 results. Its assets reached a record 10.65 trillion, up from 9.43 trillion a year earlier and 10.5 trillion in the first quarter.

Shares in trump media and technology popped more than 50% following the attempted assassination of the former president.

Apple shares are set to open 2% higher after Loop Capital upgraded the tech giant to a buy rating, citing its future AI integration and is. Bloomberg reported the company's sales in India grew 33% yearly.

Dow Jones forecast – technical analysis.

The Dow Jones has risen above 40k to fresh ATHs. Buyers could look towards 41k as the next natural target. The RSI is in overbought territory, so buyers should be cautious. Immediate support is seen at 40k and below at 39,574, the June high.

FX markets – USD flat, GBP/USD rises

The USD is flat, giving back earlier gains as the market digests Trump’s improved election odds after the shooting over the weekend. The U.S. dollar will now look to Powell’s speech for further clues about monetary policy. A dovish Powell could pull the USD index below 104.

EUR/USD is holding steady at 1:09 as the euro recovers from earlier losses and looks ahead to the ECB rate decision later in the week. The ECB is not expected to change interest rates. Instead, the market will focus on clues over when the ECB will cut rates for a second time after lowering rates by 25 basis points in June.

GBP/USD is falling away from the 2024 highs reached last week as investors await UK inflation and labour market data this week. The figures come after British recruiters warned of tough hiring market conditions due to economic and political uncertainties.

Oil falls after weak China data.

Oil prices are edging lower after falling 1.5% in the previous week. This comes after disappointing data from China, which fuels demand outlook concerns.

Chinese GDP was 4.7% in Q2, down from 5.3% in the first quarter of the year and below the 5% expected. Weaker growth in the world's second-largest oil consumer raises concerns about demand outlook. Meanwhile, China data, including refinery runs and crude imports, were not supportive. China's crude imports fell 2.3% in the year's first half.

The move lower comes after crude oil fell last week after four weeks of gains. Optimism surrounding strong US demand countered concerns over China.

 

 

 

 

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

© City Index 2024