CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
☰
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Open account
✖

Dow Jones Forecast: DJIA muted after Trump trade threats

Article By: ,  Senior Market Analyst
Yesterday 2:38 PM

US futures

Dow future 0.15% at 43528

S&P futures 0.03% at 5984

Nasdaq futures -0.09% at 21335

In Europe

FTSE 0.60% at 8711

Dax  0.57% at 22538

  • Trump reiterates Mexico, Canada trade tariff threat
  • US consumer confidence data is due later
  • Nvidia and Intel fall on reports of China export restrictions
  • Oil slips, giving back yesterday’s gains

Stocks cautious after Trump’s threat

US stocks are muted amid a cautious mood after President Trump reaffirmed the possibility of tariffs on Mexico and Canada and ahead of consumer confidence data.

The proposed 25% trade tariffs were initially delayed in early February as Trump leveraged the threat for neighbouring countries to increase border control. However, they could still be applied next Monday.

The equities market hasn't sold off in the same way it did at the end of January, suggesting that the market still considers this negotiation leverage rather than something that Trump will press ahead with. The market is only pricing in a moderate risk of the trade tariffs happening.

The crypto and FX market appears to be having more of a reaction than the equities markets.

Looking ahead, attention will be on U.S. consumer confidence data, which is expected to weaken to 102.5 in February, down from 104.1. A drop toward the 100 level could trigger a market reaction, particularly following the weaker-than-expected University of Michigan sentiment data at the end of last week.

Corporate news

Nvidia and Intel are falling after reports that the Trump administration was considering toughening controls on semiconductor technology exports to China.

Crypto-related stocks such as Strategy and Coinbase are falling sharply amid a slump in cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin trades 5% lower over the past 24 hours.

Home Depot is falling after revealing weaker-than-expected comparable sales growth for 2026 amid an uncertain operating environment.

Dow Jones forecast – technical analysis.

Dow Jones fell from around 44,500 before finding support at 43,350. The move below the 50 SMA and the RSI below 50 keeps sellers hopeful of further losses. Sellers will need to take out 44,350 to extend the bearish move towards 43k and 42,250. Should the 43,350 support hold, buyers could look to rise back above the 50 SMA towards 44k before bringing 45k back into focus.

FX markets – USD falls, EUR/USD rises

The USD is falling, tracking US treasury yields lower after Trump’s trade tariff announcements fueled concerns over the outlook for the US economy.

EUR/USD is rising, capitalising on the weaker USD after German GDP data showed a contraction of 0.2% in the fourth quarter of the year. Negotiated wage rates also declined in Q4 to 4.12%, down from 5.43%. The slowdown is expected to continue in 2025.

GBP/USD is rising amid a weaker USD and despite dovish commentary from BoE policymaker Swati Dhingra. Dhingra supports a quicker reduction to interest rates amid weak consumption, which is showing no signs of improving. In the February meeting, Dhingra voted to cut rates by 50 bps.

Oil edges lower with sanctions in focus

Oil prices are posting small losses after a modest gain yesterday. Investors weigh up Iranian sanctions and the demand outlook ahead of API inventory data later today.

Oil prices were slightly boosted yesterday after fresh US sanctions were applied to Iranian oil, raising concerns over tighter global supply. Trump hit Iran with a second set of sanctions this month as he aims to bring Iranian oil exports to zero.

Separately, investors are monitoring peace talks over Ukraine. Should the Russian invasion end, US sanctions on Russia could be dropped, bringing more oil to the markets.

Meanwhile, the demand outlook is wavering on concerns that a global trade war could slow growth. US API oil inventory data is due later.

StoneX Financial Ltd (trading as “City Index”) is an execution-only service provider. This material, whether or not it states any opinions, is for general information purposes only and it does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. However, City Index does not plan to provide further updates to any material once published and it is not under any obligation to keep this material up to date. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, legal, tax or other advice and no reliance should be placed on it.

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although City Index is not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, City Index does not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. This material is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

For further details see our full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFD and Forex Trading are leveraged products and your capital is at risk. They may not be suitable for everyone. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved by reading our full risk warning.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd. Head and Registered Office: 1st Floor, Moor House, 120 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5ET. StoneX Financial Ltd is a company registered in England and Wales, number: 05616586. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. FCA Register Number: 446717.

City Index is a trademark of StoneX Financial Ltd.

The information on this website is not targeted at the general public of any particular country. It is not intended for distribution to residents in any country where such distribution or use would contravene any local law or regulatory requirement.

© City Index 2025