US Presidential Election 2024 FAQs

Table of Contents

1. When is the next presidential election?
2. When is the next debate?
3. Who is on the ballot?
4. What is the voting process?
5. Economic metrics for trading the US Presidential Election
6. What markets are most affected by the US election?
7. What does the election mean for the stock market?
8. Is a market crash likely before the election?
9. Is a market crash likely after the election?
10. How to hedge risks during the US election
11. Who is leading in the polls, Trump or Harris?
12. Disclaimer

When is the next presidential election?

The next US presidential election takes place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. The two major party candidates are current Vice President Kamala Harris (for President) and Minnesota governor Tim Walz (for Vice President) for the Democratic ticket, and former President Donald Trump and US Senator for Ohio JD Vance for the Republican ticket.

When is the next debate?

There are currently two presidential debates and one vice presidential debate confirmed before the US Presidential Election on November 5.

• July 27: Donald Trump vs Joe Biden (Before dropping candidacy)
  • Host: CNN
  • Time: 9 pm ET
• September 10: Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris
  • Host: ABC News
  • Time: 9 pm ET
• October 1: Tim Walz and JD Vance
  • Host: CBS News

A third presidential debate is not currently scheduled, although Donald Trump has suggested two additional debates on September 4 and September 25.

Who is on the ballot?

The candidates for both major parties, Democrats and Republicans, will appear on every ballot, while other third party and independent candidates may be available on your ballot depending on the state you’re registered to vote in. Below are the major Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates.

• Democratic Nominee: Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
  • Current VP Kamala Harris announced current Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate in early August. Harris and Walz are expected to be confirmed to the Democratic ticket at the DNC.
• Republican Nominee: Donald Trump and JD Vance
  • Former President Trump was confirmed as the party candidate in July at the RNC where he named US Senator for Ohio JD Vance as his VP.

Depending on your state, you may also see certain proposals listed on your ballot, along with Congressional and Gubernatorial candidates. There are several nonprofit, nonpartisan resources like Vote.org that can generate a preview of your ballot for upcoming elections, so you can prepare for every issue and election on the ballot ahead of voting.

What is the voting process?

The voting process takes place throughout the entire election season and includes more than just the primary and general elections. Below, we outline every step of the voting process:

• Primary elections and caucuses
  • Presidential hopefuls begin campaigning a year out from election day, traveling around the country to raise awareness for themselves and their policy stances. If representing a major party, they may debate other candidates of their same party affiliation ahead of an official nominee being chosen in the primary election.
  • Most states hold primary elections six to nine months before the general election. Rules of primary voting vary by state, but generally it is closed to registered voters of that specific party. Some states hold caucuses instead, wherein members of a political party decide on a candidate through a combination of open discussions and votes.
• National conventions
  • National conventions for the two major US political parties are held towards the end of summer, when state delegates come together and select a final presidential nominee based on the outcome of state primary elections and caucuses.
  • If the chosen candidate has not yet named a Vice President running mate, they will do so during the multi-day convention. Other major party members will typically speak in support of the chosen candidate throughout the convention.
• General election
  • The general election is set by the US government as the Tuesday following the first Monday of November. This year election day lands on November 5th. On the general election, individuals vote for one President and Vice President. There may also be Congressional and Gubernatorial candidates to vote on along with state and federal positions depending on your location.
  • When voting for a Presidential ticket, you are technically casting a vote for a group of people known as electors. Electors make up the electoral college, and each state has a number of electors equal to the number of Congressional seats held. Most states will submit all their electoral votes for the candidate who receives the most votes across the entire state, but Maine and Nebraska have split electoral votes, meaning these two states may distribute electoral votes to multiple candidates depending on the share of votes they receive.
  • Election results are published state by state throughout the night, with a single candidate needing a simple majority of 270 electoral votes to win.
• Electoral college
  • Once the general election has been held, the electors of each state will formally submit votes representing their districts and confirming the winning Presidential candidate.
  • The electoral college meets and votes in December, giving states enough time to confirm the election results.
  • While a new President isn’t technically confirmed until the electoral college votes, states are able to count and publish results throughout election day. These early results are assumed accurate enough for the election to be called for one candidate or another within hours. As results come in, other candidates will typically concede to the candidate projected to win, showing deference to the US election process and every individual citizen involved in the voting process.
• Popular vote vs electoral college
  • Presidential elections are decided by the electoral college. Each state is awarded electoral votes equaling the number of congressional representatives they have. Every state has two Senate members and at least one House representative, with populous states like California and Texas having dozens of House seats, awarding them a significant number of electoral votes.
  • The popular vote refers to the number of individual votes a candidate receives, with one vote per voter. Because most states award all of their electoral votes to the candidate who won the majority of popular votes, a candidate can win the election without winning the majority of popular votes.
  • Only five elections have resulted in a successful candidate winning the electoral vote without receiving a plurality of the popular vote: John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, Geroge W. Bush in 2000, and Donald Trump in 2016.

Economic metrics for trading the US Presidential Election

Some key economic metrics to follow when trading the US Presidential Election include capital markets such as the S&P 500 and DIJA. These stock markets are typically viewed as an indication of the current strength of the US economy. Trader sentiment for other US indices as well as some US dollar forex pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY) may also reflect immediate reactions to US election news.

Income based economic metrics like unemployment and inflation rates, nonfarm payroll reports, and GDP typically do not operate as reactionary metrics in response to election news. However, they should always be considered when trading US equities, especially in the long-term.

What markets are most affected by the US election?

Some of the markets most affected by the US election are high-volatility equities and forex pairs such as US indices and US dollar pairs. These include the S&P 500, DIJA, Nasdaq, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY. The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar against a basket of major foreign currencies, can also be influenced by traders’ perceptions of how the US Presidential Election outcome might impact the country’s foreign trade and economic strength. Cryptocurrencies are perhaps the most volatile and reactive asset class and will also certainly react to US election news.

What does the election mean for the stock market?

Historically, stocks have not performed in any specific trend during election years. We take a closer look at how US indices like the S&P 500 performed immediately before and after US Presidential Elections in this article. As shown in the graph below, stocks are impacted more by traditional influences like inflation levels and unemployment than Presidential campaigns and elections. But please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

*Data provided by Acuity Trading

Is a market crash likely before the election?

A market crash before the US election is extremely unlikely. However, the S&P 500 fell an average of 2.0% in the month prior to the last five presidential elections. The chart below shows the S&P 500 movement immediately before and several periods after the election.

Source: TradingView, StoneX. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Is a market crash likely after the election?

A market crash is not likely to occur after the US election. The same chart above shows the S&P 500 movement after the past 10 elections with inconsistent outcomes. In recent elections, the stock market has generally risen in the months after the election, except 2000 and 2008, which can be attributed to the recession-causing dot-com bubble and the global financial crisis, respectively.

How to hedge risks during the US election?

To hedge risks during the US election in anticipation of political volatility, you can use similar strategies as you would for other geopolitical risks to the US dollar. Common hedging strategies include investing in precious metals like gold, inverse ETFs and futures, and increasing exposure to popular forex markets outside the US dollar like EUR/GBP, AUD/NZD, and CAD/JPY.

It’s important to utilize other risk management tools like guaranteed stop loss orders to ensure potential losses don’t snowball out of control. Learn more about guaranteed stops and other risk management tools available with City Index.

Who is leading in the polls, Trump or Harris?

While neither candidate is a clear national frontrunner, the result of various state polls aggregated together suggest Trump is in the lead as of mid-August, as shown below. You can view a live version of this map and several other live graphics comparing how the two major candidates compare on various policy issues and media coverage at our US Presidential Election hub.

*Data provided by Acuity Trading