Weekly equities outlook: Barclays, NatWest and BP

Barclays Q4 & FY earnings preview

Barclays will report full-year results on Thursday ahead of the market open. It is the first of the UK lenders to report, so results will be watched carefully. Expectations are for a rise in pre-tax profits to £8.1 billion for FY2024, up from £6.6 billion in 2023. Thanks to its strong capital position, investors will be watching for a possible £1.8 billion share buyback.

Barclays results will be driven by its investment banking arm, loan and deposit growth as well as net interest margins, which have risen across the year. While deposits dipped slightly in Q3 the bank is expected to see solid loan growth. Interest rate expectations for 2025 will also be crucial in relating to any guidance net interest income.

Barclays also has strong exposure to investment banking, and given the upbeat results from US rivals, this could help boost Barclays.

How to trade BARC earnings?

Barclays has broken out of its multi-month ridding channel, reaching 307. Buyers are supported by the RSI, while it remains out of overbought territory.

Buyers will look to rise towards 325. Immediate support can be seen at 297 the upper band of the rising channel. Below here, 285, the February low comes into play, and 280, the 50 SMA, and the mid-point of the rising channel.

NatWest Group earnings preview

Nat West will report on Friday, February 14, ahead of the market open. This comes as its share prices have doubled over the past year and are up 8% so far this year, thanks in part to a tailwind from the broader positive mood for UK stocks.

Expectations range for a pre-tax profit of £6.1 billion in 2024, down slightly from £6.2 billion in 2023, with strong loan growth expected to continue. Net interest margins have remained solid in 2024 as interest rates remained elevated. Default rates remain stable, although the economy is stagnating, and recent UK growth forecasts have been halved, meaning there is a risk that lands could turn bad if conditions deteriorate further.

Expectations are for a dividend payout of 19.4p per share and a total cash return of £4.8 billion.

How to trade NWG earnings?

NatWest's share price trades within a rising channel dating back to early 2024. The price continues to hold above the mid-point of the channel, rising to a high of 451.The RSI supports further gains while remaining out of overbought territory. Buyers could look to extend gains towards 470 the uupper band of the rising channel.

Support can be seen at 430, the mid-point of the channel, and 388, the lower band of the channel. A break below 370, the 2025 low creates a lower low.

BP Q4 & full-year earnings preview

BP will release full-year results on Tuesday as the stock price underperforms the broader market.

Oil prices have stayed around the same over the past year, although natural gas has jumped over 50%. Analysts expect an underlying replacement cost after tax, which is the industry’s net income version of $1.3 billion for the quarter, down from $2.3 billion in Q3. This should equate to around $9 billion for the full year, down from $13.8 billion last year.

BP has already flagged a fall in oil and gas prices and low carbon output in Q4 compared to Q3, as well as weak refining margins downstream and unhelpful currency movements. This picture is unlikely to help sentiment. Attention will also be on 2025 output targets and capital expenditure, which is expected to increase to $16 billion in 2024 and flatline in 2025 and 2026.

Shareholders will also be waiting for an announcement on BP's oil and gas production strategy and renewable energy, amid a sense that investors are becoming restless while waiting for clarification on the strategy.

How to trade BP earnings?

After falling to a 2-year low of 365, the price has recovered higher, rising above the falling channel and the 200 SMA to current levels of 435. Buyers, supported by the RSI above 50 will loo to rise above 440, the 2025 high to extend gains towards 460, the late July high ahead of 478.

Sellers would need to break below the 200 SMA at 420, the 200 SMA, and 411, the February low. A break below here creates a lower low and could bring 400 into play.

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