USDJPY, Gold Outlook: New Tariffs Keep the DXY and Gold on a Bullish Edge

Article By: ,  Market Analyst

Key Events

  • China’s CPI Improves, PPI Deflation Persists
  • U.S. CPI Set to Move Markets This Week Alongside Trump’s Tariff Announcements
  • Technical Analysis: Gold and USD/JPY – 3-Day Time Frame

The new tariffs imposed this week are intensifying economic uncertainties, fueling safe-haven demand for gold, and keeping the dollar strong in the short term. Trump is set to clarify his progressive tariff announcements this week between foreign imports and 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel. Gold surged past $2,890 in early Monday trading, reflecting growing investor concerns over global trade tensions and potential retaliations. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is maintaining its bullish hold above 108, yet the broader implications of tariffs on foreign imports could heighten inflation risks, which may weaken the greenback in the long run.

USDJPY Holds above 151 Support Zone 

The U.S. dollar faces critical volatility this week, influenced by tariffs, potential retaliatory measures, and the upcoming U.S. CPI report. Despite strong ISM manufacturing and services PMI readings, the NFP data fell short, coming in at 143K versus the previous 307K. As the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates on hold, upcoming inflation data could either ease market fears or trigger further bearish pressure from the dollar.

The latest CPI data showed core inflation improving toward August 2024 lows at 0.2%, but the yearly CPI surged to August 2024 highs, while the monthly CPI climbed to April 2024 highs at 2.9% and 0.4%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen has regained strength, supported by Bank of Japan (BOJ) policies and an exhausted bullish momentum in the U.S. dollar.

Gold flirts with record highs above 2890

Market uncertainty continues to fuel gold’s haven appeal, as Trump’s rapid and successive tariff announcements on imports have intensified trade war concerns. Gold’s latest surge above $2,890 marks a key resistance zone, with major financial institutions extending their 2025 gold price projections toward $3,000. China’s CPI data showed a notable improvement from 0.1% to 0.5%, hitting a five-month high and supporting gold demand, yet PPI deflation persists, reflecting continued challenges in China’s industrial sector.

Technical Analysis: Quantifying Uncertainties

USDJPY Outlook: 3-Day Forecast – Log Scale

Source: Tradingview

The Japanese yen rebounded last week, pushing USD/JPY toward the 151-support zone, just above the midpoint of a duplicated channel from the Yen’s primary trend (2023–2024) at 149.

  • Volatility risks are high with the upcoming U.S. CPI report on Wednesday.
  • A drop in inflation data could accelerate the downtrend toward 149 and 147, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the September 2024 low to January 2024 high.
  • Upside resistance: The 153.60 zone (former support) now acts as a strong resistance, followed by 156 (Jan 2023–2024 trendline) and the 158.80 high of 2025.

Gold Outlook: 3-Day Forecast – Log Scale 

Source: Tradingview

Gold remains firmly above the $2,890 mark, targeting the $2,900 zone as U.S. CPI week unfolds. Current levels are critical, given that the RSI aligns with November 2024 highs, where gold previously retreated nearly 100 points following the elections.

Additionally, gold is approaching the lower boundary of the long-term up trending channel from October 2023 to October 2024, near the $2,920 and $3,000 resistance levels. On the downside, key support levels at $2,820, $2,790, and $2,730 are expected to act as reversal zones if gold faces a pullback from its current highs.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

You Tube: Commodities and Forex trading with Razan Hilal

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

© City Index 2025