USD/JPY, FTSE Forecast: Two trades to watch

USD/JPY rises to a 34-year high & is on intervention watch

Dovish BoJ's comments raise doubts of further rate hikes
USD rises towards monthly high
USD/JPY rises to a 34-year high of 151.97

USD/JPY has risen to its highest level since 1990 amid USD strength and low trading volumes in the lead-up to the Good Friday holiday.

The yen’s depreciation to 151.97 came following comments from BoJ board member Naoki Tamura, who suggested that the central bank was in no rush to hike rates further and would remain largely dovish after last week’s rate hike, the first in 17 years. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki strongly warned that Japanese authorities could intervene to support the yen, although this has had little impact as the yen remains on the back foot.

The USD is rising against its major peers towards a monthly high as investors wait for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. The USD is finding support after dovish signals from other major central banks and ahead of Friday’s inflation data.

Yesterday's data showed a larger-than-expected rise in durable goods orders, pointing to signs of a recovery in US manufacturing, while consumer confidence held steady.

USD/JPY forecast – technical analysis

USD/JPY has risen above the 2023 high of 151.90 to a peak of 151.97, approaching the 152.00 line in the sand. A rise above here could pave the way for a move towards 153.80, the rising trendline resistance, although the risk of intervention is high.

Support can be seen at 150.90, the January high. A break below here brings 150.00, the psychological level, into focus.

FTSE falls despite Chinese industrial profits rising

China's industrial profits rise by 10.2%

Hawkish BoE comments limit gains

FTSE hovers below 7969

The FTSE is falling after rising to a 13-month high in the previous session. Falling oil prices and data from China are pressuring the index.

Chinese industrial profits rose by 10.2%, hitting a 25-month high amid signs of the slowdown bottoming out. The return to growth of Chinese industrial profits is an encouraging sign, although it's worth highlighting that the figures are being boosted by a low base of comparison from a year earlier. As a result, the market appears less than impressed by the double-digit growth, with miners falling lower.

Metal prices across the board are falling, following the data, amid a stronger USD. The USD is rising back up towards a monthly high, hurting dollar-denominated commodities.

Energy stocks are also dragging on the index. Oil majors are tracking oil prices lower after US inventories unexpectedly increased in the previous week, raising concerns over the demand outlook and pulling oil prices 1% lower.

There is no major UK economic data due to be released today, and the economic calendar is broadly quiet in the US as well. Attention will be on the US core PC data at the end of the week, which could provide further clues about the Federal Reserve's path for monetary policy.

FTSE forecast – technical analysis

The FTSE has held its break out from 7785 and is consolidating around last week’s 10-month high. Last week's high of 7969 remains the level buyers need to beat to bring 8000 and 8045, the all-time high.

Minor support is at 7890, the weekly low. Below here, there is little in the way of support until 7800 and 7786, the January high.

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.