US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Rally Eyes July High

US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF

USD/CHF may further retrace the decline from the July high (0.9051) as it trades to a fresh monthly high (0.8938), with the recent rally in the exchange rate starting to push the Relative Strength Index (RSI) into overbought territory.

US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Rally Eyes July High

USD/CHF extends the advance from the weekly low (0.8801) to carve a series of higher highs and lows, and the move above 70 in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by a further advance in the exchange rate like the price action from earlier this year.

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

In turn, USD/CHF may appreciate over the remainder of the month as it trades above the 200-Day SMA (0.88220) for the first time since July, and data prints coming out of the US may keep the exchange rate afloat as the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index is anticipated to show sticky inflation.

US Economic Calendar

Looking ahead, the headline reading is projected to increase another 0.3% in October, while the core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge for inflation, is anticipated to rise 0.2% during the same period.

In turn, signs of persistent price growth may generate a bullish reaction in the US Dollar as it puts pressure on the Fed to further combat inflation, but a softer-than-expected PCE report may curb the recent rally in USD/CHF as it encourages the central bank to further unwind its restrictive policy.

With that said, failure test July high (0.9051) may pull the RSI back from overbought territory, but USD/CHF may continue to trade to fresh monthly highs as the exchange rate is on track to mark a six-week rally for the first time since 2023.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView

USD/CHF is on track to close above the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone for the first time since July, with a breach above the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region bringing the July high (0.9051) on the radar.
Next area of interest comes in around 0.9180 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) but lack of momentum to test the July high (0.9051) may curb the bullish price series in USD/CHF.
Failure to hold above the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone may push USD/CHF back towards the 0.8770 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8800 (50% Fibonacci extension) region, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.8700 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).

Additional Market Outlooks

GBP/USD Selloff Pushes RSI Up Against Oversold Zone

USD/JPY Weakness Curbs Threat of Currency Intervention

US Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Recovery Keeps Yearly Range Intact

USD/CAD Rally Unravels to Pull RSI Back from Overbought Zone

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.