US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Pulls Back Ahead of 2024 High

Article By: ,  Strategist

US Dollar Outlook: USD/CHF

USD/CHF starts to carve a series of lower highs and lows after failing to test the 2024 high (0.9225), and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the December low (0.8736) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls back from overbought territory.

US Dollar Forecast: USD/CHF Pulls Back Ahead of 2024 High

The move below 70 in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by a further decline in USD/CHF like the price action from last year, but the pullback in the exchange rate may turn out to be temporary should it continue to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA (0.8858).

Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.

 

In turn, USD/CHF may reflect a bullish trend as long as it holds above the moving average, and speculation surrounding US monetary policy may influence the exchange rate as Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook acknowledges that ‘the labor market has been somewhat more resilient, while inflation has been stickier than I assumed’ while speaking at the University of Michigan.

As a result, Governor Cook goes onto say that the central bank ‘can afford to proceed more cautiously with further cuts,’ and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may further adjust its forward guidance in 2025 as the US economy shows little signs of a looming recession.

With that said, the opening range for January is in focus for USD/CHF as it starts to carve a bearish price series, but the exchange rate may stage further attempts to test the 2024 high (0.9225) should it continue to hold above the 50-Day SMA (0.8858).

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; USD/CHF Price on TradingView

  • USD/CHF appears to be reversing ahead of the 2024 high (0.9225) as it continues to pullback from the monthly high (0.9138), with a close below the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region bringing the 0.8880 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.8910 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) zone on the radar.
  • Next area of interest comes in around 0.8770 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.8800 (50% Fibonacci extension), but USD/CHF may stage further attempts to test the 2024 high (0.9225) if it struggles to close below the 0.9030 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.9040 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) region.
  • A breach above the 2024 high (0.9225) may lead to a test of the October 2023 high (0.9245), with the next area of interest coming in around the 2023 high (0.9440).

Additional Market Outlooks

EUR/USD Halts Three-Day Selloff to Keep RSI Out of Oversold Territory

USD/CAD Rebound Pushes RSI Back Towards Overbought Zone

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Pushes Below May Low to Eye 2024 Low

AUD/USD Vulnerable to Change in RBA Policy

--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist

Follow on Twitter at @DavidJSong

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit www.cityindex.com/en-sg/terms-and-policies for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

ALL TRADING INVOLVES RISKS. LOSSES CAN EXCEED DEPOSITS.

City Index is a trading name of StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. (“SFP”) for the offering of dealing services in Contracts for Differences (“CFD”). SFP holds a Capital Markets Services Licence issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore for Dealing in Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contracts, and Spot Foreign Exchange Contracts for the Purposes of Leveraged Foreign Exchange Trading. SFP is also both Derivatives Trading and Clearing member of the Singapore Exchange (“SGX”). SFP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc.

The information provided herein is intended for general circulation. It does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs before making a commitment to invest, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk.

The information does not represent an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any investment product. Any views and opinions expressed may be changed without an update. To understand the risks and costs involved, please visit the section captioned “Important Information” and the “Risk Disclosure Statement”.

The information herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. 1 Raffles Place, #18-61, One Raffles Place Tower 2, Singapore 048616. Tel: 6309 1000. Co. Reg. No.: 201130598R.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

© City Index 2025