Trading Ideas

Divergent monetary policies between the ECB and BOJ alongside trade wars and demand for safety could make things tricky for EUR/JPY bulls in 2025.

Major central banks may further adjust monetary policy in 2025 as the European Central Bank (ECB) insists that ‘the disinflation process is well on track,’ but the Federal Reserve may change gears at a slower pace as Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. forecast less rate-cuts for next year.

EUR/USD has recorded a 2% decline over the last five sessions, favoring the dollar and placing the euro in a sustained bearish zone.

Traders are eyeing the European Central Bank, which is set to announce its interest rate decision tomorrow. Market participants are eager to see if the ECB will maintain its cautious stance or signal any changes in policy amid the ongoing economic challenges in the Eurozone. This week’s developments could set the tone for EUR/USD outlook in the coming weeks.

EUR/USD snaps the series of higher highs and lows from last week after attempting to trade back above the former-support zone around the April low (1.0601).

Ahead of key macro events, the EUR/USD forecast remains modestly bearish, although the currency pair has found some love today thanks to optimism about more stimulus measures being introduced in China, one of the Eurozone’s major exports destinations.

While the headlines out of Europe have been largely negative, price action in the Euro hasn’t quite matched that pace. EUR/USD continues to push-higher while holding 1.0500 and EUR/JPY has pulled back from the early-week sell-off.

EUR/USD is working on its 17th red day in the past 19, a stark contrast to the strength that drove for much of Q3 trade. The question now is how to work with what’s become an oversold move on the daily chart.

EURUSD Analysis: Following a double top formation at the 1.120 resistance, EURUSD reached the target, pressured by a strong dollar and dovish ECB. Will the decline continue?

EUR/USD is red for the 14th day of the past 15, showing a stark change-of-pace to last month’s rate cut rally in the pair.

The EUR/USD held near 1.0850, near its lowest level since early August. The other euro crosses were mixed. However, the EUR/JPY forecast hadn’t quite turned bearish yet as it held above a key support and traders watched whether the USD/JPY pair would hold its latest attempt to break the 150.00 in response to a series of US data beats.

EUR/USD bears have taken a swing and the pair is now working on its 13th red day in the past 14. And before that, bulls were persistently pushing into the 1.1200 handle so the contrast is stark. The question now is how dovish the ECB sounds at tomorrow’s widely-expected rate cut.

FTSE rises as inflation cools to a 3-year low. EUR/USD falls ahead of tomorrow's ECB rate decision.

EURUSD Forecast: In addition to the strength of the dollar between haven factors and moderated expectations of monetary easing, dovish expectations surrounding the ECB’s upcoming monetary policy decision are putting additional pressures on the Euro.

Conditions for euro bears have been ripe for the past three weeks with renewed bets of an ECB cut alongside scaled-back bets of ECB easing. But given the depth of the selloff on EUR/USD, it could be vulnerable to a bounce unless a dovish cut is delivered.

Everyone has been dunking on the euro and buying US dollars recently, explaining why EUR/USD has continued to sink. But with sentiment towards the common currency so dire, it won’t take much to spark a short squeeze. With major risk events approaching, the temptation to square up short trades may prove too appealing for some.