US Election

True to his campaign promise, Trump is playing hardball with tariffs. But will he deliver, or is this simply a classic Trump-bargaining chip? Regardless, AUD/USD is getting caught up in the headlines.

It's not every day you see gold plunge alongside yields. But that is what Monday served on reports of a potential ceasefire in Gaza and Trump's picking a relatively 'safe pair of hands' for the US Treasury Secretary role. With a prominent swing high on gold, I suspect it could be headed much lower from here.

The Fed is seen as nearly 50/50 to cut interest rates again in December after Donald Trump and the Republicans secured a “Red Wave” last week - see what to expect from US CPI!

It was a lively day’s trade on Monday with Bitcoin reaching news highs above $80k and the USD index retesting its YTD high of 105.62. WTI crude oil and gold are on the brink of breaking key levels to the downside.

The Republican party is just 4 votes shy of the 218 required to take the house for a clean sweep. And that saw bitcoin futures top 80k with a $750 opening gap to kick off the week.

As the latest COT data is up to the close of election day, it shows how traders were positioned ahead of the results. Subsequent market moves suggest they needn't have piled into VIX longs and could have increased net-long exposure to the USD. But they were right to be wary of gold.

The expected 25 cut was delivered. But the Fed were understandably cautious regarding future cuts, given they don't know which or how many of Trump’s inflationary policies will see the day of light. And that means the current pullback on the USD and yields could be limited.

Gold Outlook: As market certainty grows post-U.S. elections and the dollar rallies in response to potential inflation risks, gold has faced a sharp pullback. The yellow metal, previously in overbought territory on its monthly timeframe, has plunged nearly 100 points, recharging momentum ahead of tonight's FOMC meeting.

NZD/USD rises despite soft jobs data, with risk of mega RBNZ cut remaining on the table. US Congress composition now key to near-term Kiwi moves.

The US Dollar is pulling back on election day and the currency is no longer overbought on the daily chart. In this webinar I looked at several election-related setups and in this article I look at a few of those in USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CAD.

USD/JPY surged 10% off the yearly low with the bulls relenting at key resistance ahead of US elections / FOMC. Battle lines drawn on the short-term technical charts.

The EUR/USD has been supported in the last few days for several macro reasons such as the ECB pushback against a 50-basis point rate cut in December, a rather weak US jobs report, and, more to the point, the recent poll suggesting Harris might be performing better than anticipated in swing state of Iowa.

The RBA is holding firm on rates, but with inflation concerns still high and the US election looming, what’s the next move for the Aussie dollar? As bonds take a beating and AUD/USD edges higher, here’s how both domestic policy and global events could shape the outlook.

The US dollar and yields have enjoyed a strong rally over the past five weeks, thanks to hotter US data, Fed members pushing back on rate cuts, and Trump leading in many polls. But with the US election on our doorstep and the potential for a delayed result, could this tie the Fed’s hands at this week’s meeting?

With the US election on the horizon, uncertainty looms over key markets like USD/JPY, gold, and crude oil. Discover how potential political outcomes could trigger explosive volatility and reshape trading strategies in the days ahead.

The US Dollar was very strong in October as rising odds of a Trump win started to get priced-in to markets, but can equities avoid a pullback if longer-term US rates continue to fly-higher?

With the US election now just one day away, things can turn rapidly across financial markets, particularly because this is turning out to be such a close election and the polls cannot and should not be trusted. Given the fact that the DAX has weakened in the last couple of weeks, this also argues against a sustainable recovery as the prior bullish momentum has been lost.